Recent GFS and other numerical weather prediction runs show Sao Paulo’s minimum temperature on October 8 stabilizing near 17–19 °C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and high humidity that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions, typical for early October in the region, anchor trader sentiment around the 14–21 °C outcomes that together command roughly one-third implied probability each. The standout 45 % on 23 °C or higher captures lingering model spread and the possibility of slightly stronger warm advection, while the sub-2.5 % on 13 °C or below reflects the low climatological likelihood of such cold air reaching the plateau this early in spring. Final INMET observations tomorrow morning will resolve the market.