Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo minimum temperatures on July 9 will likely fall in the 21–23°C range under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal overnight radiative cooling. Above-normal summer 2026 sea-surface temperatures and a broad subtropical ridge support the elevated baseline, yet small differences in cloud persistence or urban heat-island effects can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. This genuine forecast spread explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 19°C and 27°C, with no single outcome exceeding 44% as traders weigh the latest model runs and observed diurnal trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?
23°C 42%
22°C 37%
24°C 7%
20°C 4.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 9, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
37%
23°C
42%
24°C
7%
25°C
3%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
23°C 42%
22°C 37%
24°C 7%
20°C 4.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 9, 2026
17°C or below
$13 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$217 Wol.
1%
19°C
$74 Wol.
1%
20°C
$8 Wol.
4%
21°C
$8 Wol.
4%
22°C
$247 Wol.
37%
23°C
$64 Wol.
42%
24°C
$39 Wol.
7%
25°C
$8 Wol.
3%
26°C
$59 Wol.
3%
27°C or higher
$158 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo minimum temperatures on July 9 will likely fall in the 21–23°C range under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal overnight radiative cooling. Above-normal summer 2026 sea-surface temperatures and a broad subtropical ridge support the elevated baseline, yet small differences in cloud persistence or urban heat-island effects can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. This genuine forecast spread explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 19°C and 27°C, with no single outcome exceeding 44% as traders weigh the latest model runs and observed diurnal trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$896Data zakończenia
Jul 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo minimum temperatures on July 9 will likely fall in the 21–23°C range under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal overnight radiative cooling. Above-normal summer 2026 sea-surface temperatures and a broad subtropical ridge support the elevated baseline, yet small differences in cloud persistence or urban heat-island effects can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. This genuine forecast spread explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 19°C and 27°C, with no single outcome exceeding 44% as traders weigh the latest model runs and observed diurnal trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$896Data zakończenia
Jul 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo minimum temperatures on July 9 will likely fall in the 21–23°C range under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal overnight radiative cooling. Above-normal summer 2026 sea-surface temperatures and a broad subtropical ridge support the elevated baseline, yet small differences in cloud persistence or urban heat-island effects can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. This genuine forecast spread explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 19°C and 27°C, with no single outcome exceeding 44% as traders weigh the latest model runs and observed diurnal trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania