Emmanuel Macron faces a constitutionally fixed term ending in May 2027, with French law barring a third consecutive presidential bid. Traders assign low probability to an earlier departure through December 2026 amid persistent low approval ratings near 17 percent, a minority government struggling with budget negotiations and public debt above 119 percent of GDP, and spreading student protests over education funding. Recent statements from Macron have reaffirmed his intent to complete the mandate while ruling out another National Assembly dissolution, though opposition figures including Marine Le Pen have highlighted resignation as one path out of legislative deadlock. Upcoming budget votes and any escalation in fiscal or social tensions represent the main near-term variables that could influence assessments of early exit risk.