Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term ends in May 2027 under France’s constitutional two-term limit, which bars him from seeking a third consecutive mandate. Traders assign roughly 2% probability to his departure by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of formal resignation signals or constitutional triggers. Recent cost-of-living protests escalated into widespread unrest and looting in October 2026, prompting curfews, protest restrictions, and public criticism of security planning, yet Macron has rejected cabinet resignations and continued official duties including foreign travel. Parliamentary budget disputes and opposition calls for early departure have not altered the timeline. The April 18 and May 2, 2027, presidential election dates remain fixed, with candidate positioning already underway across the political spectrum.