Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat and term-limited governorship create a linked contest where trader consensus assigns a 56% implied probability to a Democratic sweep, with the Republican sweep at just 10.5% and split outcomes filling the remainder. Recent August primaries produced Democratic nominees Abdul El-Sayed for Senate and Jocelyn Benson for governor, while Republicans settled on Mike Rogers and John James, respectively. General-election polling shows both races within a few points, reflecting Michigan's status as a swing state with balanced partisan turnout and no dominant structural advantage. Developments that could widen margins include sustained shifts in national economic sentiment, candidate fundraising edges, or late endorsements that consolidate one party's base in key suburban and rural counties ahead of November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDems sweep 56%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 32%
Reps sweep 11%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 4.2%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Dems sweep
56%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate
32%
Reps sweep
11%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
4%
Dems sweep 56%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 32%
Reps sweep 11%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 4.2%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Dems sweep
$126 Wol.
56%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate
$111 Wol.
32%
Reps sweep
$445 Wol.
11%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
$631 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat and term-limited governorship create a linked contest where trader consensus assigns a 56% implied probability to a Democratic sweep, with the Republican sweep at just 10.5% and split outcomes filling the remainder. Recent August primaries produced Democratic nominees Abdul El-Sayed for Senate and Jocelyn Benson for governor, while Republicans settled on Mike Rogers and John James, respectively. General-election polling shows both races within a few points, reflecting Michigan's status as a swing state with balanced partisan turnout and no dominant structural advantage. Developments that could widen margins include sustained shifts in national economic sentiment, candidate fundraising edges, or late endorsements that consolidate one party's base in key suburban and rural counties ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,313Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat and term-limited governorship create a linked contest where trader consensus assigns a 56% implied probability to a Democratic sweep, with the Republican sweep at just 10.5% and split outcomes filling the remainder. Recent August primaries produced Democratic nominees Abdul El-Sayed for Senate and Jocelyn Benson for governor, while Republicans settled on Mike Rogers and John James, respectively. General-election polling shows both races within a few points, reflecting Michigan's status as a swing state with balanced partisan turnout and no dominant structural advantage. Developments that could widen margins include sustained shifts in national economic sentiment, candidate fundraising edges, or late endorsements that consolidate one party's base in key suburban and rural counties ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Wolumen
$1,313Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat and term-limited governorship create a linked contest where trader consensus assigns a 56% implied probability to a Democratic sweep, with the Republican sweep at just 10.5% and split outcomes filling the remainder. Recent August primaries produced Democratic nominees Abdul El-Sayed for Senate and Jocelyn Benson for governor, while Republicans settled on Mike Rogers and John James, respectively. General-election polling shows both races within a few points, reflecting Michigan's status as a swing state with balanced partisan turnout and no dominant structural advantage. Developments that could widen margins include sustained shifts in national economic sentiment, candidate fundraising edges, or late endorsements that consolidate one party's base in key suburban and rural counties ahead of November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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