Ongoing surveillance by the WHO and CDC through September 2026 shows multiple localized outbreaks—including Bundibugyo Ebola in the DRC and Uganda, Nipah virus in South Asia, avian influenza H9N2 and H5N1 spillovers, and mpox clade I cases—but none exhibit sustained global human-to-human transmission or meet pandemic criteria. These events remain regionally contained with limited secondary spread, consistent with historical patterns where novel pathogens rarely achieve the transmissibility and immune-evasion thresholds required for worldwide escalation. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects this low baseline risk through year-end, though an unexpected mutation enabling efficient airborne spread or undetected zoonotic emergence could still alter outcomes before December 31.