Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by core OPEC+ members' sustained coordination following the UAE's exit effective May 1. Despite this shock—echoing prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability through April-May production adjustments, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day hike for June announced May 3 amid Iran conflict disruptions. Ongoing press releases and output tweaks underscore the cartel's resilience, prioritizing supply management over global surpluses projected at 2-4 million bpd early 2026. Realistic challenges include quota non-compliance by Iran and Iraq, potential Saudi fatigue with voluntary cuts, or escalated Mideast tensions fracturing unity further, though historical precedents favor persistence into year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$16,734 Wol.
$16,734 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,734 Wol.
$16,734 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by core OPEC+ members' sustained coordination following the UAE's exit effective May 1. Despite this shock—echoing prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability through April-May production adjustments, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day hike for June announced May 3 amid Iran conflict disruptions. Ongoing press releases and output tweaks underscore the cartel's resilience, prioritizing supply management over global surpluses projected at 2-4 million bpd early 2026. Realistic challenges include quota non-compliance by Iran and Iraq, potential Saudi fatigue with voluntary cuts, or escalated Mideast tensions fracturing unity further, though historical precedents favor persistence into year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,734Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by core OPEC+ members' sustained coordination following the UAE's exit effective May 1. Despite this shock—echoing prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability through April-May production adjustments, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day hike for June announced May 3 amid Iran conflict disruptions. Ongoing press releases and output tweaks underscore the cartel's resilience, prioritizing supply management over global surpluses projected at 2-4 million bpd early 2026. Realistic challenges include quota non-compliance by Iran and Iraq, potential Saudi fatigue with voluntary cuts, or escalated Mideast tensions fracturing unity further, though historical precedents favor persistence into year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$16,734Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by core OPEC+ members' sustained coordination following the UAE's exit effective May 1. Despite this shock—echoing prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability through April-May production adjustments, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day hike for June announced May 3 amid Iran conflict disruptions. Ongoing press releases and output tweaks underscore the cartel's resilience, prioritizing supply management over global surpluses projected at 2-4 million bpd early 2026. Realistic challenges include quota non-compliance by Iran and Iraq, potential Saudi fatigue with voluntary cuts, or escalated Mideast tensions fracturing unity further, though historical precedents favor persistence into year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania