The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—announced April 28 amid regional tensions including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions—marks the first major departure since Angola in late 2023, driven by Abu Dhabi's push for greater production flexibility given its low fiscal breakeven and spare capacity. With no subsequent official announcements from remaining members like Kazakhstan or Iraq, despite post-exit speculation, OPEC+ has sustained coordination, agreeing to modest output hikes in April-May while prioritizing market stability. This discipline amid geopolitical pressures explains trader consensus at 69.5% "No" for another exit in 2026, though upcoming ministerial monitoring meetings could signal shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$92,402 Wol.
$92,402 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$92,402 Wol.
$92,402 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—announced April 28 amid regional tensions including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions—marks the first major departure since Angola in late 2023, driven by Abu Dhabi's push for greater production flexibility given its low fiscal breakeven and spare capacity. With no subsequent official announcements from remaining members like Kazakhstan or Iraq, despite post-exit speculation, OPEC+ has sustained coordination, agreeing to modest output hikes in April-May while prioritizing market stability. This discipline amid geopolitical pressures explains trader consensus at 69.5% "No" for another exit in 2026, though upcoming ministerial monitoring meetings could signal shifts.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$92,402Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—announced April 28 amid regional tensions including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions—marks the first major departure since Angola in late 2023, driven by Abu Dhabi's push for greater production flexibility given its low fiscal breakeven and spare capacity. With no subsequent official announcements from remaining members like Kazakhstan or Iraq, despite post-exit speculation, OPEC+ has sustained coordination, agreeing to modest output hikes in April-May while prioritizing market stability. This discipline amid geopolitical pressures explains trader consensus at 69.5% "No" for another exit in 2026, though upcoming ministerial monitoring meetings could signal shifts.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$92,402Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—announced April 28 amid regional tensions including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions—marks the first major departure since Angola in late 2023, driven by Abu Dhabi's push for greater production flexibility given its low fiscal breakeven and spare capacity. With no subsequent official announcements from remaining members like Kazakhstan or Iraq, despite post-exit speculation, OPEC+ has sustained coordination, agreeing to modest output hikes in April-May while prioritizing market stability. This discipline amid geopolitical pressures explains trader consensus at 69.5% "No" for another exit in 2026, though upcoming ministerial monitoring meetings could signal shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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