No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal procedures or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, consistent with the EU Exit Index assessment that the United Kingdom remains an outlier following its 2020 departure. Domestic political support for leaving has stayed marginal across member states, with euroskeptic parties focusing more on renegotiation or policy vetoes than full withdrawal. The formal process demands national constitutional steps, lengthy negotiations, and supermajority approvals that exceed the remaining timeline to 2027. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no withdrawal reflects these structural and political barriers. Unforeseen events, such as a rapid domestic crisis triggering an accelerated referendum in one state, remain the primary variables that could still shift probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAny country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
$159,748 Wol.
$159,748 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$159,748 Wol.
$159,748 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal procedures or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, consistent with the EU Exit Index assessment that the United Kingdom remains an outlier following its 2020 departure. Domestic political support for leaving has stayed marginal across member states, with euroskeptic parties focusing more on renegotiation or policy vetoes than full withdrawal. The formal process demands national constitutional steps, lengthy negotiations, and supermajority approvals that exceed the remaining timeline to 2027. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no withdrawal reflects these structural and political barriers. Unforeseen events, such as a rapid domestic crisis triggering an accelerated referendum in one state, remain the primary variables that could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$159,748Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal procedures or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, consistent with the EU Exit Index assessment that the United Kingdom remains an outlier following its 2020 departure. Domestic political support for leaving has stayed marginal across member states, with euroskeptic parties focusing more on renegotiation or policy vetoes than full withdrawal. The formal process demands national constitutional steps, lengthy negotiations, and supermajority approvals that exceed the remaining timeline to 2027. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no withdrawal reflects these structural and political barriers. Unforeseen events, such as a rapid domestic crisis triggering an accelerated referendum in one state, remain the primary variables that could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$159,748Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal procedures or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, consistent with the EU Exit Index assessment that the United Kingdom remains an outlier following its 2020 departure. Domestic political support for leaving has stayed marginal across member states, with euroskeptic parties focusing more on renegotiation or policy vetoes than full withdrawal. The formal process demands national constitutional steps, lengthy negotiations, and supermajority approvals that exceed the remaining timeline to 2027. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no withdrawal reflects these structural and political barriers. Unforeseen events, such as a rapid domestic crisis triggering an accelerated referendum in one state, remain the primary variables that could still shift probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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