US bank failures through late 2026 have been confined to small institutions, with five resolutions already recorded by the FDIC this year amid persistent commercial real estate pressures, elevated interest-rate risk, and modest net interest margin compression. Macroeconomic uncertainty, including sticky inflation and moderating growth, continues to weigh on regional lenders' asset quality, while regulatory scrutiny and emerging factors like stablecoin competition add to balance-sheet strains. These conditions sustain the 73.5% market-implied probability for an additional failure by December 31, as traders price in the historical base rate of several small-bank closures annually alongside limited signs of broader sector stabilization. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FDIC quarterly data and any shifts in Fed policy or Treasury yields that could alter credit conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS bank failure by December 31, 2026?
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
55% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
55% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.US bank failures through late 2026 have been confined to small institutions, with five resolutions already recorded by the FDIC this year amid persistent commercial real estate pressures, elevated interest-rate risk, and modest net interest margin compression. Macroeconomic uncertainty, including sticky inflation and moderating growth, continues to weigh on regional lenders' asset quality, while regulatory scrutiny and emerging factors like stablecoin competition add to balance-sheet strains. These conditions sustain the 73.5% market-implied probability for an additional failure by December 31, as traders price in the historical base rate of several small-bank closures annually alongside limited signs of broader sector stabilization. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FDIC quarterly data and any shifts in Fed policy or Treasury yields that could alter credit conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Wolumen
$84Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.US bank failures through late 2026 have been confined to small institutions, with five resolutions already recorded by the FDIC this year amid persistent commercial real estate pressures, elevated interest-rate risk, and modest net interest margin compression. Macroeconomic uncertainty, including sticky inflation and moderating growth, continues to weigh on regional lenders' asset quality, while regulatory scrutiny and emerging factors like stablecoin competition add to balance-sheet strains. These conditions sustain the 73.5% market-implied probability for an additional failure by December 31, as traders price in the historical base rate of several small-bank closures annually alongside limited signs of broader sector stabilization. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FDIC quarterly data and any shifts in Fed policy or Treasury yields that could alter credit conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Wolumen
$84Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US bank failures through late 2026 have been confined to small institutions, with five resolutions already recorded by the FDIC this year amid persistent commercial real estate pressures, elevated interest-rate risk, and modest net interest margin compression. Macroeconomic uncertainty, including sticky inflation and moderating growth, continues to weigh on regional lenders' asset quality, while regulatory scrutiny and emerging factors like stablecoin competition add to balance-sheet strains. These conditions sustain the 73.5% market-implied probability for an additional failure by December 31, as traders price in the historical base rate of several small-bank closures annually alongside limited signs of broader sector stabilization. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FDIC quarterly data and any shifts in Fed policy or Treasury yields that could alter credit conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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