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icon for U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

icon for U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

12% szansa
Polymarket
NOWE
12% szansa
Polymarket
NOWE
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. policy under the current administration prioritizes a phased approach of stabilization and economic recovery in Venezuela before any full democratic transition, with officials continuing to engage acting President Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro. President Trump has repeatedly questioned María Corina Machado's domestic support and suitability to lead, directing focus instead toward Edmundo González, whom the United States recognized as the legitimate 2024 election winner. Recent diplomatic contacts between Machado and U.S. leaders, including a White House meeting and her Nobel Peace Prize presentation, produced no shift in this stance, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasized sequential steps rather than immediate recognition of opposition figures. Traders see these signals, combined with ongoing security concerns delaying Machado's return and the absence of any formal endorsement or diplomatic upgrade for her by mid-2026, as strong evidence against U.S. acknowledgment of her as Venezuela's leader before the December 31 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$3,882
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. policy under the current administration prioritizes a phased approach of stabilization and economic recovery in Venezuela before any full democratic transition, with officials continuing to engage acting President Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro. President Trump has repeatedly questioned María Corina Machado's domestic support and suitability to lead, directing focus instead toward Edmundo González, whom the United States recognized as the legitimate 2024 election winner. Recent diplomatic contacts between Machado and U.S. leaders, including a White House meeting and her Nobel Peace Prize presentation, produced no shift in this stance, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasized sequential steps rather than immediate recognition of opposition figures. Traders see these signals, combined with ongoing security concerns delaying Machado's return and the absence of any formal endorsement or diplomatic upgrade for her by mid-2026, as strong evidence against U.S. acknowledgment of her as Venezuela's leader before the December 31 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$3,882
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Często zadawane pytania

"U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały "Tak" lub "Nie" w zależności od tego, czy wierzą, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Obecne zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwo to 12% na "Yes". Na przykład, jeśli "Tak" kosztuje 12¢, rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 12% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje i wydarzenia. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony Jan 31, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?", wybierz, czy uważasz, że odpowiedź to "Tak" czy "Nie". Każda strona ma bieżącą cenę odzwierciedlającą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" i wynik okaże się "Tak", każdy udział wypłaci $1. Jeśli okaże się "Nie", Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem, jeśli chcesz zrealizować zysk lub ograniczyć stratę.

Obecne prawdopodobieństwo dla "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" to 12% na "Yes". Oznacza to, że społeczność Polymarket uważa, że istnieje 12% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym na podstawie rzeczywistych transakcji, dostarczając ciągle aktualizowany sygnał tego, czego rynek oczekuje.

Zasady rozstrzygania "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.