Ursula von der Leyen secured re-election by the European Parliament in July 2024 with 401 votes, beginning her second five-year term as European Commission President in December 2024, which extends through the next parliamentary elections in 2029. As of mid-2026, she continues to lead on defense, competitiveness, sanctions, and external relations amid active engagement in summits and legislative work, with no successful no-confidence motions or institutional challenges emerging. Trader consensus at 96% for "No" reflects this fixed mandate structure, broad EPP-backed support, and absence of acute political pressure for early removal. Late developments such as a major health event, ethics scandal prompting resignation, or unexpected parliamentary realignment could still alter outcomes within the calendar year.