Recent strength in the San Francisco metro housing market, fueled by AI-driven tech employment and persistent low inventory, has pushed typical home values to around $1.416 million as of late July 2026 with double-digit year-over-year gains, yet trader consensus heavily favors outcomes below $1.198 million by September 30. This positioning reflects expectations of seasonal softening into early fall, when buyer activity typically declines after the spring-summer peak, alongside stabilizing mortgage rates and potential moderation in luxury segment bidding. Broader Bay Area medians near $1.4 million highlight competitive pressures in core San Francisco but also early signs of cooling in adjacent counties, while forward-looking factors such as Federal Reserve policy signals and any uptick in listings could further anchor values near current levels. The heavy weighting toward sub-$1.2 million brackets captures market-implied odds of limited near-term appreciation before the September 30 resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?
What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?
<$1.176M 58%
$1.176M - $1.198M 34%
$1.220M - $1.242M 10.5%
$1.198M - $1.220M 6%
$36,725 Wol.
$36,725 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.176M
58%
$1.176M - $1.198M
34%
$1.198M - $1.220M
6%
$1.220M - $1.242M
8%
$1.242M - $1.264M
6%
$1.264M - $1.284M
<1%
$1.284M+
<1%
<$1.176M 58%
$1.176M - $1.198M 34%
$1.220M - $1.242M 10.5%
$1.198M - $1.220M 6%
$36,725 Wol.
$36,725 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.176M
$14,621 Wol.
58%
$1.176M - $1.198M
$13,774 Wol.
34%
$1.198M - $1.220M
$1,816 Wol.
6%
$1.220M - $1.242M
$1,808 Wol.
8%
$1.242M - $1.264M
$2,731 Wol.
6%
$1.264M - $1.284M
$904 Wol.
<1%
$1.284M+
$1,072 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent strength in the San Francisco metro housing market, fueled by AI-driven tech employment and persistent low inventory, has pushed typical home values to around $1.416 million as of late July 2026 with double-digit year-over-year gains, yet trader consensus heavily favors outcomes below $1.198 million by September 30. This positioning reflects expectations of seasonal softening into early fall, when buyer activity typically declines after the spring-summer peak, alongside stabilizing mortgage rates and potential moderation in luxury segment bidding. Broader Bay Area medians near $1.4 million highlight competitive pressures in core San Francisco but also early signs of cooling in adjacent counties, while forward-looking factors such as Federal Reserve policy signals and any uptick in listings could further anchor values near current levels. The heavy weighting toward sub-$1.2 million brackets captures market-implied odds of limited near-term appreciation before the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Rynek otwarty: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Wolumen
$36,725Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent strength in the San Francisco metro housing market, fueled by AI-driven tech employment and persistent low inventory, has pushed typical home values to around $1.416 million as of late July 2026 with double-digit year-over-year gains, yet trader consensus heavily favors outcomes below $1.198 million by September 30. This positioning reflects expectations of seasonal softening into early fall, when buyer activity typically declines after the spring-summer peak, alongside stabilizing mortgage rates and potential moderation in luxury segment bidding. Broader Bay Area medians near $1.4 million highlight competitive pressures in core San Francisco but also early signs of cooling in adjacent counties, while forward-looking factors such as Federal Reserve policy signals and any uptick in listings could further anchor values near current levels. The heavy weighting toward sub-$1.2 million brackets captures market-implied odds of limited near-term appreciation before the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Wolumen
$36,725Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent strength in the San Francisco metro housing market, fueled by AI-driven tech employment and persistent low inventory, has pushed typical home values to around $1.416 million as of late July 2026 with double-digit year-over-year gains, yet trader consensus heavily favors outcomes below $1.198 million by September 30. This positioning reflects expectations of seasonal softening into early fall, when buyer activity typically declines after the spring-summer peak, alongside stabilizing mortgage rates and potential moderation in luxury segment bidding. Broader Bay Area medians near $1.4 million highlight competitive pressures in core San Francisco but also early signs of cooling in adjacent counties, while forward-looking factors such as Federal Reserve policy signals and any uptick in listings could further anchor values near current levels. The heavy weighting toward sub-$1.2 million brackets captures market-implied odds of limited near-term appreciation before the September 30 resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania