Trader sentiment heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81.5% because frontier large language models on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard remain clustered below 1550 Elo as of mid-September, with top entries like Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants at roughly 1505–1525. Incremental gains from earlier 2026 releases such as GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.x series have narrowed gaps among closed labs but not produced the sustained jumps needed to clear the threshold before year-end. Anthropic holds the strongest position among individual companies at 11% implied odds due to consistent leadership across multiple high-vote models, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail with lower probabilities reflecting tighter competition and slower recent momentum. Open-weight contenders like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen series continue closing capability gaps without yet threatening the mark.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 82%
Anthropic 11%
OpenAI 4.5%
Alibaba 1.2%
$125,835 Wol.
$125,835 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
82%
Anthropic
11%
OpenAI
4%
Alibaba
1%
1%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 82%
Anthropic 11%
OpenAI 4.5%
Alibaba 1.2%
$125,835 Wol.
$125,835 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$26,221 Wol.
82%
Anthropic
$18,684 Wol.
11%
OpenAI
$15,237 Wol.
4%
Alibaba
$11,378 Wol.
1%
$12,041 Wol.
1%
xAI
$9,570 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,474 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,758 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81.5% because frontier large language models on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard remain clustered below 1550 Elo as of mid-September, with top entries like Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants at roughly 1505–1525. Incremental gains from earlier 2026 releases such as GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.x series have narrowed gaps among closed labs but not produced the sustained jumps needed to clear the threshold before year-end. Anthropic holds the strongest position among individual companies at 11% implied odds due to consistent leadership across multiple high-vote models, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail with lower probabilities reflecting tighter competition and slower recent momentum. Open-weight contenders like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen series continue closing capability gaps without yet threatening the mark.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Wolumen
$125,835Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81.5% because frontier large language models on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard remain clustered below 1550 Elo as of mid-September, with top entries like Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants at roughly 1505–1525. Incremental gains from earlier 2026 releases such as GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.x series have narrowed gaps among closed labs but not produced the sustained jumps needed to clear the threshold before year-end. Anthropic holds the strongest position among individual companies at 11% implied odds due to consistent leadership across multiple high-vote models, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail with lower probabilities reflecting tighter competition and slower recent momentum. Open-weight contenders like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen series continue closing capability gaps without yet threatening the mark.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Wolumen
$125,835Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81.5% because frontier large language models on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard remain clustered below 1550 Elo as of mid-September, with top entries like Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants at roughly 1505–1525. Incremental gains from earlier 2026 releases such as GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.x series have narrowed gaps among closed labs but not produced the sustained jumps needed to clear the threshold before year-end. Anthropic holds the strongest position among individual companies at 11% implied odds due to consistent leadership across multiple high-vote models, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail with lower probabilities reflecting tighter competition and slower recent momentum. Open-weight contenders like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen series continue closing capability gaps without yet threatening the mark.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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