Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability that no company's large language model reaches 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, reflecting frontier models clustered around 1505–1525 as of mid-August. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 13.5% because its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently top leaderboards with strong agentic and reasoning benchmarks, yet even these have not sustained the required jump despite June–July releases. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3.1 series trail closely but show incremental gains that traders view as insufficient to close the gap before year-end. The market prices in typical scaling curves, where further capability leaps now demand longer training cycles and face diminishing returns on existing architectures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 80%
Anthropic 14%
Google 5.8%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 Wol.
$114,223 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
80%
Anthropic
14%
6%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 80%
Anthropic 14%
Google 5.8%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 Wol.
$114,223 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$25,038 Wol.
80%
Anthropic
$13,940 Wol.
14%
$10,858 Wol.
6%
OpenAI
$13,071 Wol.
2%
xAI
$8,897 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$9,533 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,681 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$12,731 Wol.
1%
Mistral
$9,474 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability that no company's large language model reaches 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, reflecting frontier models clustered around 1505–1525 as of mid-August. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 13.5% because its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently top leaderboards with strong agentic and reasoning benchmarks, yet even these have not sustained the required jump despite June–July releases. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3.1 series trail closely but show incremental gains that traders view as insufficient to close the gap before year-end. The market prices in typical scaling curves, where further capability leaps now demand longer training cycles and face diminishing returns on existing architectures.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Wolumen
$114,223Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability that no company's large language model reaches 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, reflecting frontier models clustered around 1505–1525 as of mid-August. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 13.5% because its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently top leaderboards with strong agentic and reasoning benchmarks, yet even these have not sustained the required jump despite June–July releases. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3.1 series trail closely but show incremental gains that traders view as insufficient to close the gap before year-end. The market prices in typical scaling curves, where further capability leaps now demand longer training cycles and face diminishing returns on existing architectures.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Wolumen
$114,223Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability that no company's large language model reaches 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, reflecting frontier models clustered around 1505–1525 as of mid-August. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 13.5% because its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently top leaderboards with strong agentic and reasoning benchmarks, yet even these have not sustained the required jump despite June–July releases. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3.1 series trail closely but show incremental gains that traders view as insufficient to close the gap before year-end. The market prices in typical scaling curves, where further capability leaps now demand longer training cycles and face diminishing returns on existing architectures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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