The market assigns the highest probability to no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current leading large language models remain well below that threshold despite rapid iteration. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among individual labs due to Claude models' consistent benchmark gains and demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning tasks. Google follows with Gemini's multimodal scaling and internal infrastructure advantages, while OpenAI and xAI trail as trader sentiment reflects more incremental recent releases. Key upcoming catalysts include next-generation model launches and arena leaderboard updates through the second half of the year, though historical patterns suggest sustained jumps of this magnitude remain challenging within the remaining timeline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 3.1%
$54,452 Wol.
$54,452 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
32%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 3.1%
$54,452 Wol.
$54,452 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,084 Wol.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 Wol.
32%
$7,388 Wol.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Wol.
3%
xAI
$5,414 Wol.
2%
Mistral
$3,688 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Wol.
<1%
Alibaba
$4,750 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market assigns the highest probability to no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current leading large language models remain well below that threshold despite rapid iteration. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among individual labs due to Claude models' consistent benchmark gains and demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning tasks. Google follows with Gemini's multimodal scaling and internal infrastructure advantages, while OpenAI and xAI trail as trader sentiment reflects more incremental recent releases. Key upcoming catalysts include next-generation model launches and arena leaderboard updates through the second half of the year, though historical patterns suggest sustained jumps of this magnitude remain challenging within the remaining timeline.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Wolumen
$54,452Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market assigns the highest probability to no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current leading large language models remain well below that threshold despite rapid iteration. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among individual labs due to Claude models' consistent benchmark gains and demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning tasks. Google follows with Gemini's multimodal scaling and internal infrastructure advantages, while OpenAI and xAI trail as trader sentiment reflects more incremental recent releases. Key upcoming catalysts include next-generation model launches and arena leaderboard updates through the second half of the year, though historical patterns suggest sustained jumps of this magnitude remain challenging within the remaining timeline.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Wolumen
$54,452Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market assigns the highest probability to no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current leading large language models remain well below that threshold despite rapid iteration. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among individual labs due to Claude models' consistent benchmark gains and demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning tasks. Google follows with Gemini's multimodal scaling and internal infrastructure advantages, while OpenAI and xAI trail as trader sentiment reflects more incremental recent releases. Key upcoming catalysts include next-generation model launches and arena leaderboard updates through the second half of the year, though historical patterns suggest sustained jumps of this magnitude remain challenging within the remaining timeline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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