Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on the pace of federal investigations and indictments through the remainder of 2026. Leading probabilities attach to Mahmoud Khalil amid ongoing immigration and protest-related enforcement actions, while former intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey reflect trader focus on potential accountability proceedings tied to prior official conduct. Lower-priced outcomes for figures including Anthony Fauci, Adam Schiff, and Barack Obama track structural barriers such as statutes of limitations, venue considerations, and historical patterns of limited prosecution of senior political actors. Recent surges in ICE arrests and DOJ resource allocation provide context for near-term catalysts, with resolution triggered by any qualifying arrest or voluntary surrender before January 1, 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$364,923 Wol.
Anthony Fauci
12%
John Brennan
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
23%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
1%
James Comey
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
30%
James Clapper
13%
Letitia James
13%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
3%
Loretta Lynch
10%
Susan Rice
8%
Candace Owens
6%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
3%
Pam Bondi
4%
Tom Homan
11%
Kash Patel
3%
Brandon Johnson
12%
Lisa Cook
11%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$364,923 Wol.
Anthony Fauci
$135,467 Wol.
12%
John Brennan
$18,168 Wol.
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$21,677 Wol.
23%
Adam Schiff
$16,394 Wol.
3%
Barack Obama
$28,805 Wol.
1%
James Comey
$9,602 Wol.
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,278 Wol.
30%
James Clapper
$6,726 Wol.
13%
Letitia James
$2,821 Wol.
13%
Hillary Clinton
$25,009 Wol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$2,008 Wol.
3%
Loretta Lynch
$2,376 Wol.
10%
Susan Rice
$304 Wol.
8%
Candace Owens
$263 Wol.
6%
Gavin Newsom
$37,157 Wol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,789 Wol.
5%
John Kerry
$346 Wol.
3%
Pam Bondi
$1,998 Wol.
4%
Tom Homan
$39,428 Wol.
11%
Kash Patel
$530 Wol.
3%
Brandon Johnson
$3,191 Wol.
12%
Lisa Cook
$3,253 Wol.
11%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Wol.
11%
Joe Biden
$5,538 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on the pace of federal investigations and indictments through the remainder of 2026. Leading probabilities attach to Mahmoud Khalil amid ongoing immigration and protest-related enforcement actions, while former intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey reflect trader focus on potential accountability proceedings tied to prior official conduct. Lower-priced outcomes for figures including Anthony Fauci, Adam Schiff, and Barack Obama track structural barriers such as statutes of limitations, venue considerations, and historical patterns of limited prosecution of senior political actors. Recent surges in ICE arrests and DOJ resource allocation provide context for near-term catalysts, with resolution triggered by any qualifying arrest or voluntary surrender before January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$364,923Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on the pace of federal investigations and indictments through the remainder of 2026. Leading probabilities attach to Mahmoud Khalil amid ongoing immigration and protest-related enforcement actions, while former intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey reflect trader focus on potential accountability proceedings tied to prior official conduct. Lower-priced outcomes for figures including Anthony Fauci, Adam Schiff, and Barack Obama track structural barriers such as statutes of limitations, venue considerations, and historical patterns of limited prosecution of senior political actors. Recent surges in ICE arrests and DOJ resource allocation provide context for near-term catalysts, with resolution triggered by any qualifying arrest or voluntary surrender before January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$364,923Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on the pace of federal investigations and indictments through the remainder of 2026. Leading probabilities attach to Mahmoud Khalil amid ongoing immigration and protest-related enforcement actions, while former intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey reflect trader focus on potential accountability proceedings tied to prior official conduct. Lower-priced outcomes for figures including Anthony Fauci, Adam Schiff, and Barack Obama track structural barriers such as statutes of limitations, venue considerations, and historical patterns of limited prosecution of senior political actors. Recent surges in ICE arrests and DOJ resource allocation provide context for near-term catalysts, with resolution triggered by any qualifying arrest or voluntary surrender before January 1, 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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