Tom Aspinall’s ongoing recovery from the October 2025 eye injury that ended his title defense in a no-contest against Ciryl Gane has left the UFC heavyweight title picture unusually open, with the champion sidelined for multiple surgeries and no firm return date. This uncertainty fuels the tight clustering of implied probabilities among leading contenders, as upcoming summer bouts are poised to crown an interim champion and reshuffle rankings. Recent form, stylistic matchups, and divisional depth keep Serghei Spivac, Ante Delija, Sergei Pavlovich, Waldo Cortes Acosta, and Jailton Almeida in striking distance, while Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov retain long-shot upside based on prior title challenges. The extended timeline to December 2026 amplifies variables like injury recoveries, weight-cut issues, and potential cross-division moves, reflecting trader consensus on a wide-open race.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSergei Pavlovich 40.2%
Jailton Almeida 40.0%
Derrick Lewis 38.5%
Ciryl Gane 22%
$97,750 Wol.
$97,750 Wol.
Sergei Pavlovich
40%
Jailton Almeida
40%
Derrick Lewis
38%
Ciryl Gane
22%
Alexander Volkov
9%
Marcin Tybura
1%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Tom Aspinall
38%
Serghei Spivac
44%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
39%
Ante Delija
42%
Sergei Pavlovich 40.2%
Jailton Almeida 40.0%
Derrick Lewis 38.5%
Ciryl Gane 22%
$97,750 Wol.
$97,750 Wol.
Sergei Pavlovich
40%
Jailton Almeida
40%
Derrick Lewis
38%
Ciryl Gane
22%
Alexander Volkov
9%
Marcin Tybura
1%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Tom Aspinall
38%
Serghei Spivac
44%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
39%
Ante Delija
42%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Aspinall’s ongoing recovery from the October 2025 eye injury that ended his title defense in a no-contest against Ciryl Gane has left the UFC heavyweight title picture unusually open, with the champion sidelined for multiple surgeries and no firm return date. This uncertainty fuels the tight clustering of implied probabilities among leading contenders, as upcoming summer bouts are poised to crown an interim champion and reshuffle rankings. Recent form, stylistic matchups, and divisional depth keep Serghei Spivac, Ante Delija, Sergei Pavlovich, Waldo Cortes Acosta, and Jailton Almeida in striking distance, while Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov retain long-shot upside based on prior title challenges. The extended timeline to December 2026 amplifies variables like injury recoveries, weight-cut issues, and potential cross-division moves, reflecting trader consensus on a wide-open race.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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