Bipartisan Senate opposition, including a unanimous July 2026 resolution against clemency, combined with exhausted appeals after a federal judge rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition in August, has reinforced trader expectations against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. President Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and has received no formal request, while declining to rule it out and noting he would consult the Justice Department. Maxwell’s counsel has signaled interest in clemency tied to testimony but acknowledged the ongoing Epstein files controversy creates substantial political barriers. These factors, alongside survivor advocacy and reputational risks for the administration, underpin the current 95% implied probability that no pardon will occur.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
5% szansa
$759,228 Wol.
$759,228 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
Zarabiaj 3.25%
Tak
5% szansa
$759,228 Wol.
$759,228 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
Zarabiaj 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan Senate opposition, including a unanimous July 2026 resolution against clemency, combined with exhausted appeals after a federal judge rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition in August, has reinforced trader expectations against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. President Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and has received no formal request, while declining to rule it out and noting he would consult the Justice Department. Maxwell’s counsel has signaled interest in clemency tied to testimony but acknowledged the ongoing Epstein files controversy creates substantial political barriers. These factors, alongside survivor advocacy and reputational risks for the administration, underpin the current 95% implied probability that no pardon will occur.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Wolumen
$759,228Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan Senate opposition, including a unanimous July 2026 resolution against clemency, combined with exhausted appeals after a federal judge rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition in August, has reinforced trader expectations against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. President Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and has received no formal request, while declining to rule it out and noting he would consult the Justice Department. Maxwell’s counsel has signaled interest in clemency tied to testimony but acknowledged the ongoing Epstein files controversy creates substantial political barriers. These factors, alongside survivor advocacy and reputational risks for the administration, underpin the current 95% implied probability that no pardon will occur.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$759,228Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...Bipartisan Senate opposition, including a unanimous July 2026 resolution against clemency, combined with exhausted appeals after a federal judge rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition in August, has reinforced trader expectations against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. President Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and has received no formal request, while declining to rule it out and noting he would consult the Justice Department. Maxwell’s counsel has signaled interest in clemency tied to testimony but acknowledged the ongoing Epstein files controversy creates substantial political barriers. These factors, alongside survivor advocacy and reputational risks for the administration, underpin the current 95% implied probability that no pardon will occur.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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