Despite recent splits among House Republicans on whether to support clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell in exchange for testimony in the ongoing Epstein investigation, trader consensus assigns only a 9.5% chance of a pardon by the end of 2026. President Trump has offered no firm commitment, stating he would consult the Justice Department while noting he has received many pardon requests. Opposition from Democrats on the Oversight Committee, victims’ advocates, and concerns over public reaction to leniency in a high-profile sex-trafficking case continue to weigh heavily on assessments. These political and procedural barriers, rather than any outright prohibition, shape the current implied probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$552,038 Wol.
$552,038 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$552,038 Wol.
$552,038 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Despite recent splits among House Republicans on whether to support clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell in exchange for testimony in the ongoing Epstein investigation, trader consensus assigns only a 9.5% chance of a pardon by the end of 2026. President Trump has offered no firm commitment, stating he would consult the Justice Department while noting he has received many pardon requests. Opposition from Democrats on the Oversight Committee, victims’ advocates, and concerns over public reaction to leniency in a high-profile sex-trafficking case continue to weigh heavily on assessments. These political and procedural barriers, rather than any outright prohibition, shape the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Wolumen
$552,038Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Despite recent splits among House Republicans on whether to support clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell in exchange for testimony in the ongoing Epstein investigation, trader consensus assigns only a 9.5% chance of a pardon by the end of 2026. President Trump has offered no firm commitment, stating he would consult the Justice Department while noting he has received many pardon requests. Opposition from Democrats on the Oversight Committee, victims’ advocates, and concerns over public reaction to leniency in a high-profile sex-trafficking case continue to weigh heavily on assessments. These political and procedural barriers, rather than any outright prohibition, shape the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$552,038Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Despite recent splits among House Republicans on whether to support clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell in exchange for testimony in the ongoing Epstein investigation, trader consensus assigns only a 9.5% chance of a pardon by the end of 2026. President Trump has offered no firm commitment, stating he would consult the Justice Department while noting he has received many pardon requests. Opposition from Democrats on the Oversight Committee, victims’ advocates, and concerns over public reaction to leniency in a high-profile sex-trafficking case continue to weigh heavily on assessments. These political and procedural barriers, rather than any outright prohibition, shape the current implied probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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