US-Iran negotiations amid the ongoing conflict that began with February 2026 strikes remain the central driver of odds on direct communication between President Trump and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Trump publicly expressed openness to a meeting in early June 2026 if it advanced a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials and the supreme leader’s advisers have repeatedly dismissed the prospect as unrealistic and rejected any personal encounter. Khamenei authorized a June memorandum of understanding despite reservations, yet hardliners have since pushed escalation, complicating diplomacy. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, including Khamenei’s limited public role, security constraints, and mutual distrust, though scheduled multilateral talks and any verified direct channel could still shift probabilities before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy Trump porozmawia z Mojtabą Khamenei do...?
$626,256 Wol.
December 31
3%
$626,256 Wol.
December 31
3%
A talk is defined as any interaction between Mojtaba Khamenei and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 30, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...A talk is defined as any interaction between Mojtaba Khamenei and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...US-Iran negotiations amid the ongoing conflict that began with February 2026 strikes remain the central driver of odds on direct communication between President Trump and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Trump publicly expressed openness to a meeting in early June 2026 if it advanced a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials and the supreme leader’s advisers have repeatedly dismissed the prospect as unrealistic and rejected any personal encounter. Khamenei authorized a June memorandum of understanding despite reservations, yet hardliners have since pushed escalation, complicating diplomacy. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, including Khamenei’s limited public role, security constraints, and mutual distrust, though scheduled multilateral talks and any verified direct channel could still shift probabilities before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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