Ongoing diplomatic talks between the US and Iran, including reported progress toward an interim agreement on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant near-term influence on the USD/IRR rate ahead of the June 30 resolution. Hopes for de-escalation have contributed to recent oil price declines and rial stabilization around 1.37–1.7 million per dollar on free-market quotes, though enforcement of existing sanctions on Iranian crude exports continues to limit foreign exchange inflows. Domestic factors such as elevated inflation above 40 percent, fiscal pressures, and central bank policies add structural downward pressure on the rial. Any breakthrough or setback in negotiations over the next two weeks could shift trader-implied probabilities across rate brackets, consistent with historical sensitivity of the currency to geopolitical catalysts.