Kimi Antonelli’s three consecutive 2026 victories and 20-point championship lead over Mercedes teammate George Russell have shifted trader consensus toward the young Italian, with implied probabilities now reflecting his early-season form and composure under pressure from Lando Norris in Miami. Russell, the preseason favorite, trails after a fourth-place finish and must close the gap quickly on a schedule that rewards consistency across 22 rounds. McLaren’s Norris and Oscar Piastri sit further back in the market at lower probabilities, underscoring the current Mercedes advantage in both car pace and intra-team dynamics. Historical precedents show that early leads can evaporate amid reliability issues or strategic missteps, keeping the title fight open despite Antonelli’s momentum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoKimi Antonelli 38.1%
George Russell 31%
Lando Norris 11.6%
Max Verstappen 6.2%
$150,119,338 Vol.
$150,119,338 Vol.
Kimi Antonelli
38%
George Russell
31%
Lando Norris
12%
Max Verstappen
6%
Oscar Piastri
5%
Charles Leclerc
5%
Lewis Hamilton
2%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Esteban Ocon
<1%
Nico Hülkenberg
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Alexander Albon
<1%
Valtteri Bottas
<1%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
<1%
Sergio Pérez
<1%
Isack Hadjar
<1%
Lance Stroll
<1%
Oliver Bearman
<1%
Kimi Antonelli 38.1%
George Russell 31%
Lando Norris 11.6%
Max Verstappen 6.2%
$150,119,338 Vol.
$150,119,338 Vol.
Kimi Antonelli
38%
George Russell
31%
Lando Norris
12%
Max Verstappen
6%
Oscar Piastri
5%
Charles Leclerc
5%
Lewis Hamilton
2%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Esteban Ocon
<1%
Nico Hülkenberg
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Alexander Albon
<1%
Valtteri Bottas
<1%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
<1%
Sergio Pérez
<1%
Isack Hadjar
<1%
Lance Stroll
<1%
Oliver Bearman
<1%
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kimi Antonelli’s three consecutive 2026 victories and 20-point championship lead over Mercedes teammate George Russell have shifted trader consensus toward the young Italian, with implied probabilities now reflecting his early-season form and composure under pressure from Lando Norris in Miami. Russell, the preseason favorite, trails after a fourth-place finish and must close the gap quickly on a schedule that rewards consistency across 22 rounds. McLaren’s Norris and Oscar Piastri sit further back in the market at lower probabilities, underscoring the current Mercedes advantage in both car pace and intra-team dynamics. Historical precedents show that early leads can evaporate amid reliability issues or strategic missteps, keeping the title fight open despite Antonelli’s momentum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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