Trader consensus prices France and Spain as the narrowest favorites for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at implied probabilities of 17.3 percent and 16.6 percent, driven by their deep attacking options, recent Nations League results, and proven ability to advance through knockout stages. England sits third at 11.3 percent, supported by strong qualifying form and a favorable North American schedule that minimizes travel fatigue. The bunched top tier reflects an unusually open field: Brazil and Argentina retain historical pedigree and star power despite recent inconsistencies, while the Netherlands, Portugal, and Germany feature balanced squads and reliable goalkeepers capable of delivering in high-stakes matches. Expanded 48-team format and group-stage draws further compress probabilities, leaving little separation among contenders with comparable roster health and tactical flexibility.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFrança 17.3%
Espanha 16.6%
Inglaterra 11.3%
Brasil 9.2%
$998,052,983 Vol.
$998,052,983 Vol.
França
17%
Espanha
17%
Inglaterra
11%
Brasil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
2%
Japão
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Suíça
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turquia
1%
Áustria
1%
Suécia
1%
Canadá
<1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Egito
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Chéquia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Iraque
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
França 17.3%
Espanha 16.6%
Inglaterra 11.3%
Brasil 9.2%
$998,052,983 Vol.
$998,052,983 Vol.
França
17%
Espanha
17%
Inglaterra
11%
Brasil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
2%
Japão
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Suíça
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turquia
1%
Áustria
1%
Suécia
1%
Canadá
<1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Egito
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Chéquia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Iraque
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices France and Spain as the narrowest favorites for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at implied probabilities of 17.3 percent and 16.6 percent, driven by their deep attacking options, recent Nations League results, and proven ability to advance through knockout stages. England sits third at 11.3 percent, supported by strong qualifying form and a favorable North American schedule that minimizes travel fatigue. The bunched top tier reflects an unusually open field: Brazil and Argentina retain historical pedigree and star power despite recent inconsistencies, while the Netherlands, Portugal, and Germany feature balanced squads and reliable goalkeepers capable of delivering in high-stakes matches. Expanded 48-team format and group-stage draws further compress probabilities, leaving little separation among contenders with comparable roster health and tactical flexibility.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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