France and Spain lead the trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner due to their exceptional squad depth and recent success, with Spain’s unbeaten streak since 2024 and European Championship pedigree offsetting concerns over Lamine Yamal’s hamstring recovery, while France benefits from proven depth despite Hugo Ekitike’s Achilles absence. England’s strong recent form and Argentina’s status as defending champions with Lionel Messi available keep the top group tightly bunched, though Brazil faces notable setbacks from Rodrygo and Éder Militão injuries that have tempered enthusiasm for their campaign under Carlo Ancelotti. These factors, combined with the expanded 48-team format and competitive group stages, sustain a narrow implied probability spread among the leading nations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFrança 18.6%
Espanha 16.8%
Inglaterra 11.3%
Brasil 9.2%
$1,008,680,854 Vol.
$1,008,680,854 Vol.
França
19%
Espanha
17%
Inglaterra
11%
Brasil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
2%
Japão
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Suíça
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turquia
1%
Áustria
1%
Suécia
1%
Canadá
<1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Egito
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Chéquia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Iraque
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
França 18.6%
Espanha 16.8%
Inglaterra 11.3%
Brasil 9.2%
$1,008,680,854 Vol.
$1,008,680,854 Vol.
França
19%
Espanha
17%
Inglaterra
11%
Brasil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
2%
Japão
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Suíça
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turquia
1%
Áustria
1%
Suécia
1%
Canadá
<1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Egito
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Chéquia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Iraque
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France and Spain lead the trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner due to their exceptional squad depth and recent success, with Spain’s unbeaten streak since 2024 and European Championship pedigree offsetting concerns over Lamine Yamal’s hamstring recovery, while France benefits from proven depth despite Hugo Ekitike’s Achilles absence. England’s strong recent form and Argentina’s status as defending champions with Lionel Messi available keep the top group tightly bunched, though Brazil faces notable setbacks from Rodrygo and Éder Militão injuries that have tempered enthusiasm for their campaign under Carlo Ancelotti. These factors, combined with the expanded 48-team format and competitive group stages, sustain a narrow implied probability spread among the leading nations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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