Arsenal hold an 82.5% implied probability of winning the Premier League title due to their two-point lead atop the table with just two fixtures left, including home games against Burnley and Crystal Palace. Recent results have kept Mikel Arteta’s side in control, as they secured a late 1-0 victory at West Ham and followed it with strong performances that maintained a superior points total despite Manchester City’s +43 goal difference advantage. Pep Guardiola’s team sit two points behind with one fewer game played in some scenarios, but Arsenal’s consistent recent form and favorable remaining schedule have reinforced trader consensus around the Gunners’ path to a first title since 2004. Any slip by Arsenal could still hand City momentum through their superior goals-scored tiebreaker.