The Baku City Circuit's street layout, featuring a 2.2 km main straight and an extremely narrow 7.6 m castle section flanked by walls, has produced at least one safety car or virtual safety car in every prior Azerbaijan Grand Prix since 2016. This structural tendency stems from high-speed slipstreaming into Turn 1, heavy braking demands, and frequent wheel-to-wheel contact that often results in debris or incidents requiring neutralization. The 2026 technical regulation changes, including new power units and the removal of DRS in favor of an overtake mode, have not altered the track's core characteristics that drive these outcomes. With the race scheduled for September 26 amid a compressed Thursday-to-Saturday weekend, trader pricing at 73% for a safety car reflects the circuit's established record of chaos over recent form or specific team developments.