Belgium’s elite FIFA ranking near ninth, unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign, and squad depth with experienced attackers and a solid defense have established them as the clear frontrunner in Group G, reflected in the 66.5% implied probability. Recent March 2026 friendlies, including a 5-2 rout of the United States without key starters, reinforced their firepower and consistency. Egypt sits at 18% as the primary challenger following an undefeated CAF qualifying run and strong attacking options, though questions persist about results against top opposition. Iran’s 9.4% stems from reliable AFC qualification and a physical style, tempered by external scheduling concerns ahead of the June group stage. New Zealand’s 4.1% reflects OFC dominance offset by limited recent results and key injuries against higher-ranked sides.