Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate daytime maxima in Chengdu likely reaching 38–41°C on July 25 amid persistent high-pressure influence and the Sichuan Basin’s topographic heat-trapping effect, where surrounding mountains limit ventilation and sustain elevated humidity levels near 70%. Afternoon convective clouds or scattered showers, common in the region’s subtropical monsoon regime, introduce the main uncertainty by potentially capping extreme heating or allowing brief clear-sky spikes. China Meteorological Administration alerts highlight ongoing regional heat, with historical July climatology showing frequent 35–39°C readings. Trader consensus clusters on 39–41°C outcomes as the latest model spreads and precipitation timing remain the key variables ahead of final resolution.