Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 13°C in Milan at 99.8% implied probability, driven by real-time observational data from Milan Malpensa International Airport—the market's official resolution station—showing a midday peak around 11–13°C under persistent rain and broken clouds reported in METAR observations. A recent cold front sweeping northern Italy has suppressed temperatures 8–10°C below seasonal norms, with forecast models from ECMWF and national agencies aligning on overcast conditions limiting solar heating through late afternoon. While genuine uncertainty exists in short-term weather, a dramatic scenario challenging this would require sudden clearing and intense solar insolation before sunset, though current steering patterns and upper-level trough make this improbable; final hourly observations will confirm resolution by midnight local time.