Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and national meteorological services indicate maximum temperatures in Warsaw on July 25 most likely in the 24–26°C range, with the market's tight clustering around 25°C reflecting genuine model spread and limited differentiation among runs. Key variables include the strength and timing of any Atlantic trough, potential for increased cloud cover or scattered showers that could cap daytime heating, and modest variations in boundary-layer moisture and wind. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide context, while the absence of strong high-pressure dominance or heat advection keeps probabilities for extremes low. Updated model guidance and official IMGW briefings in the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for the daily high.