Recent U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments have shaped trader sentiment around the 2026 federal funds rate path, with Polymarket implying the highest probabilities on zero or one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions have kept headline CPI near 3.5% year-over-year as of June, prompting some FOMC participants and analysts to price in a possible tightening move by year-end. However, the July employment report—showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls, downward revisions to prior months, and unemployment easing to 4.1% amid labor force exits—has introduced counterbalancing caution, supporting the market-implied odds that the Fed may hold the current 3.50–3.75% target range steady through the remainder of the year. Upcoming inflation releases and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
0 (0 bps)
46%
1 (25 bps)
32%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
0 (0 bps)
46%
1 (25 bps)
32%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments have shaped trader sentiment around the 2026 federal funds rate path, with Polymarket implying the highest probabilities on zero or one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions have kept headline CPI near 3.5% year-over-year as of June, prompting some FOMC participants and analysts to price in a possible tightening move by year-end. However, the July employment report—showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls, downward revisions to prior months, and unemployment easing to 4.1% amid labor force exits—has introduced counterbalancing caution, supporting the market-implied odds that the Fed may hold the current 3.50–3.75% target range steady through the remainder of the year. Upcoming inflation releases and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado



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