Recent U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments have shaped trader sentiment around the 2026 federal funds rate path, with Polymarket implying the highest probabilities on zero or one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions have kept headline CPI near 3.5% year-over-year as of June, prompting some FOMC participants and analysts to price in a possible tightening move by year-end. However, the July employment report—showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls, downward revisions to prior months, and unemployment easing to 4.1% amid labor force exits—has introduced counterbalancing caution, supporting the market-implied odds that the Fed may hold the current 3.50–3.75% target range steady through the remainder of the year. Upcoming inflation releases and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0 (0 bps)
46%
1 (25 bps)
32%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,230 Vol.
46%
1 (25 bps)
$19,212 Vol.
32%
2 (50 bps)
$32,523 Vol.
12%
3 (75 bps)
$13,121 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,390 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments have shaped trader sentiment around the 2026 federal funds rate path, with Polymarket implying the highest probabilities on zero or one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions have kept headline CPI near 3.5% year-over-year as of June, prompting some FOMC participants and analysts to price in a possible tightening move by year-end. However, the July employment report—showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls, downward revisions to prior months, and unemployment easing to 4.1% amid labor force exits—has introduced counterbalancing caution, supporting the market-implied odds that the Fed may hold the current 3.50–3.75% target range steady through the remainder of the year. Upcoming inflation releases and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$135,706Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments have shaped trader sentiment around the 2026 federal funds rate path, with Polymarket implying the highest probabilities on zero or one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions have kept headline CPI near 3.5% year-over-year as of June, prompting some FOMC participants and analysts to price in a possible tightening move by year-end. However, the July employment report—showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls, downward revisions to prior months, and unemployment easing to 4.1% amid labor force exits—has introduced counterbalancing caution, supporting the market-implied odds that the Fed may hold the current 3.50–3.75% target range steady through the remainder of the year. Upcoming inflation releases and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$135,706Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments have shaped trader sentiment around the 2026 federal funds rate path, with Polymarket implying the highest probabilities on zero or one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions have kept headline CPI near 3.5% year-over-year as of June, prompting some FOMC participants and analysts to price in a possible tightening move by year-end. However, the July employment report—showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls, downward revisions to prior months, and unemployment easing to 4.1% amid labor force exits—has introduced counterbalancing caution, supporting the market-implied odds that the Fed may hold the current 3.50–3.75% target range steady through the remainder of the year. Upcoming inflation releases and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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