Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, particularly the April CPI print, combined with elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 31.5 percent. A resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and solid nonfarm payrolls, has tempered expectations for near-term easing and kept the policy rate anchored in the 3.50–3.75 percent range after the April FOMC decision. Major banks including Bank of America now forecast steady policy through year-end 2026, with any cuts pushed into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price a 71 percent chance of no change by December. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and employment data that could shift the balance between inflation risks and labor-market softening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,100,803 Vol.
$1,100,803 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Sim
$1,100,803 Vol.
$1,100,803 Vol.
9 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, particularly the April CPI print, combined with elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 31.5 percent. A resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and solid nonfarm payrolls, has tempered expectations for near-term easing and kept the policy rate anchored in the 3.50–3.75 percent range after the April FOMC decision. Major banks including Bank of America now forecast steady policy through year-end 2026, with any cuts pushed into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price a 71 percent chance of no change by December. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and employment data that could shift the balance between inflation risks and labor-market softening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,100,803Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, particularly the April CPI print, combined with elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 31.5 percent. A resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and solid nonfarm payrolls, has tempered expectations for near-term easing and kept the policy rate anchored in the 3.50–3.75 percent range after the April FOMC decision. Major banks including Bank of America now forecast steady policy through year-end 2026, with any cuts pushed into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price a 71 percent chance of no change by December. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and employment data that could shift the balance between inflation risks and labor-market softening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,100,803Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, particularly the April CPI print, combined with elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 31.5 percent. A resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and solid nonfarm payrolls, has tempered expectations for near-term easing and kept the policy rate anchored in the 3.50–3.75 percent range after the April FOMC decision. Major banks including Bank of America now forecast steady policy through year-end 2026, with any cuts pushed into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price a 71 percent chance of no change by December. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and employment data that could shift the balance between inflation risks and labor-market softening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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