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icon for Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?

Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?

icon for Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?

Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

10% chance
Polymarket

$105,161 Vol.

Sim

10% chance
Polymarket

$105,161 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor-market data and elevated inflation. April CPI readings showed headline inflation climbing to its highest level in nearly three years, driven by energy-price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures remained above the 2% target. This environment has shifted futures pricing via CME FedWatch toward zero odds of near-term easing and even modest probabilities of a hike, aligning with forward guidance that prioritizes data dependence over unscheduled action. Realistic challenges to this view include a sharp deterioration in employment or a systemic financial shock that forces an inter-meeting response, though current indicators and recent communications limit those scenarios.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$105,161
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor-market data and elevated inflation. April CPI readings showed headline inflation climbing to its highest level in nearly three years, driven by energy-price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures remained above the 2% target. This environment has shifted futures pricing via CME FedWatch toward zero odds of near-term easing and even modest probabilities of a hike, aligning with forward guidance that prioritizes data dependence over unscheduled action. Realistic challenges to this view include a sharp deterioration in employment or a systemic financial shock that forces an inter-meeting response, though current indicators and recent communications limit those scenarios.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$105,161
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Corte emergencial da taxa pelo Fed antes de 2027?" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?" has generated $105.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?" is "Corte emergencial da taxa pelo Fed antes de 2027?" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.