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icon for Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?
Política·Taxas Fed

Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?

icon for Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?
Política·Taxas Fed

Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?

4,25% 53.7%

4,0% 19.0%

≥ 4,5% 18.1%

3,75% 5.7%

Polymarket

$6,878,681 Vol.

4,25% 53.7%

4,0% 19.0%

≥ 4,5% 18.1%

3,75% 5.7%

Polymarket

$6,878,681 Vol.

≤1,0%

$256,748 Vol.

<1%

1,25

$151,209 Vol.

<1%

1,5%

$151,138 Vol.

<1%

1,75%

$153,469 Vol.

<1%

2,0%

$269,074 Vol.

<1%

2,25%

$92,657 Vol.

<1%

2,5%

$179,638 Vol.

<1%

2,75%

$69,805 Vol.

<1%

3,0%

$499,731 Vol.

<1%

3,25%

$85,154 Vol.

<1%

3,5%

$205,716 Vol.

2%

3,75%

$536,561 Vol.

6%

4,0%

$1,373,367 Vol.

19%

4,25%

$440,989 Vol.

54%

≥ 4,5%

$2,413,426 Vol.

18%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections released after the September 16 decision show policymakers raising their median federal funds rate outlook for end-2026 to 4.1 percent, up from 3.8 percent in June, with 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point hike this year. The committee lifted its PCE inflation forecast to 3.7 percent for 2026 amid resilient GDP growth and a tighter labor market, where the unemployment rate projection fell to 4.1 percent. These updates reflect ongoing price pressures that have prompted a more restrictive policy stance than earlier anticipated. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 4.25 percent leading at over 50 percent probability followed by 4.0 percent, aligns closely with the revised dot plot and signals limited scope for cuts before year-end absent faster disinflation. Upcoming data on inflation and employment through December will influence whether rates stabilize near current levels or move higher.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,878,681
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections released after the September 16 decision show policymakers raising their median federal funds rate outlook for end-2026 to 4.1 percent, up from 3.8 percent in June, with 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point hike this year. The committee lifted its PCE inflation forecast to 3.7 percent for 2026 amid resilient GDP growth and a tighter labor market, where the unemployment rate projection fell to 4.1 percent. These updates reflect ongoing price pressures that have prompted a more restrictive policy stance than earlier anticipated. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 4.25 percent leading at over 50 percent probability followed by 4.0 percent, aligns closely with the revised dot plot and signals limited scope for cuts before year-end absent faster disinflation. Upcoming data on inflation and employment through December will influence whether rates stabilize near current levels or move higher.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,878,681
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4,25%" at 54%, followed by "4,0%" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?" has generated $6.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?" is "4,25%" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4,0%" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.