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icon for Decisões do Fed (set-dez)
Economia·Fed

Decisões do Fed (set-dez)

icon for Decisões do Fed (set-dez)
Economia·Fed

Decisões do Fed (set-dez)

set 16

out 28

dez 9

set 16

out 28

dez 9

Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar 24%

Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 18%

Pausa–Pausa–Alta 15%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar 13%

Polymarket
NOVO

Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar 24%

Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 18%

Pausa–Pausa–Alta 15%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar 13%

Polymarket
NOVO

Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar

$40 Vol.

24%

Aumento–Pausa–Pausa

$41 Vol.

18%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Aumentar

$40 Vol.

7%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar

$25 Vol.

13%

Pausa–Pausa–Alta

$25 Vol.

15%

Pausa–Pausa–Pausa

$25 Vol.

13%

Pausar–Aumentar–Aumentar

$25 Vol.

7%

Pausar–Aumentar–Pausar

$42 Vol.

9%

Outro

$25 Vol.

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$288
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$288
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Decisões do Fed (set-dez)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar" at 24%, followed by "Aumento–Pausa–Pausa" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Decisões do Fed (set-dez)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Decisões do Fed (set-dez)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Decisões do Fed (set-dez)" is "Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Aumento–Pausa–Pausa" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Decisões do Fed (set-dez)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.