Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's July–October 2026 policy path, with the July 29 hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range—approved 9–3 amid three hawkish dissents—reinforcing the pause baseline. June CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly decline and 3.5% year-over-year pace, yet persistent core pressures near 3.4% and rising oil prices have shifted some implied probabilities toward potential September or October hikes, elevating the “Other” outcome to 62.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 29.5%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on a data-dependent stance, with upcoming September 16 and October 28 meetings serving as key catalysts alongside fresh CPI, PCE, and labor-market releases that could alter the rate-path trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOther 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
28 out 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
28 out 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$220,903 Vol.
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,978 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,752 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,264 Vol.
1%
Other
$287,403 Vol.
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's July–October 2026 policy path, with the July 29 hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range—approved 9–3 amid three hawkish dissents—reinforcing the pause baseline. June CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly decline and 3.5% year-over-year pace, yet persistent core pressures near 3.4% and rising oil prices have shifted some implied probabilities toward potential September or October hikes, elevating the “Other” outcome to 62.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 29.5%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on a data-dependent stance, with upcoming September 16 and October 28 meetings serving as key catalysts alongside fresh CPI, PCE, and labor-market releases that could alter the rate-path trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$657,789Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's July–October 2026 policy path, with the July 29 hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range—approved 9–3 amid three hawkish dissents—reinforcing the pause baseline. June CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly decline and 3.5% year-over-year pace, yet persistent core pressures near 3.4% and rising oil prices have shifted some implied probabilities toward potential September or October hikes, elevating the “Other” outcome to 62.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 29.5%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on a data-dependent stance, with upcoming September 16 and October 28 meetings serving as key catalysts alongside fresh CPI, PCE, and labor-market releases that could alter the rate-path trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$657,789Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's July–October 2026 policy path, with the July 29 hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range—approved 9–3 amid three hawkish dissents—reinforcing the pause baseline. June CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly decline and 3.5% year-over-year pace, yet persistent core pressures near 3.4% and rising oil prices have shifted some implied probabilities toward potential September or October hikes, elevating the “Other” outcome to 62.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 29.5%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on a data-dependent stance, with upcoming September 16 and October 28 meetings serving as key catalysts alongside fresh CPI, PCE, and labor-market releases that could alter the rate-path trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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