The closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, without charges related to Federal Reserve renovation testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability that he will not face incarceration before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the absence of active federal or state proceedings against the Fed Chair, whose role centers on monetary policy decisions including the federal funds rate and Treasury yield influences, alongside robust institutional protections and due process requirements that make jailing a central banker exceptionally rare. While historical precedent shows no comparable outcomes for Fed leadership, tail-risk scenarios such as unexpected new allegations or extraordinary political actions could theoretically shift odds, though current data releases and regulatory filings show no supporting signals.