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Taxas Fed previsões e probabilidades

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Decisão do Fed em julho?

Decisão do Fed em julho?

81%

Sem mudança

$26M Vol.

$3M today

$2M Liq.

1

Ends em 29 dias

Quantos cortes de juros do Fed em 2026?

Quantos cortes de juros do Fed em 2026?

78%

0 (0 bps)

$40M Vol.

$237K today

$3M Liq.

91

Ends em 6 meses

Taxa do Fed cortada em...?

Taxa do Fed cortada em...?

18%

Reunião de Dezembro

$3M Vol.

$111K today

$224K Liq.

21

Ends há 13 dias

Fed Decision in September?

Fed Decision in September?

63%

No change

$936K Vol.

$375K Liq.

Ends em 3 meses

Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?

Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?

44%

Reunião de Outubro

$461K Vol.

$108K Liq.

Ends em 4 meses

Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

53%

$3M Vol.

$196K Liq.

Ends em 5 meses

Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?

Qual será a taxa do Fed no final de 2026?

29%

3,75%

$7M Vol.

$284K Liq.

6

Ends em 5 meses

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

46%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$96.3K Vol.

$170K Liq.

Ends em 4 meses

Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

62%

No change

$116K Vol.

$170K Liq.

Ends em 4 meses

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

63%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$47.8K Vol.

$106K Liq.

Ends em 3 meses

Decisões do Fed (abr-jul)

Decisões do Fed (abr-jul)

81%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$129K Vol.

$55.3K Liq.

Ends em 29 dias

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

28%

↑ 4,25%

$2M Vol.

$151K Liq.

11

Ends em 6 meses

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

33%

3,9%

$219K Vol.

$39.0K Liq.

3

Ends em 6 meses

Jerome Powell cobrado pelo governo federal até 30 de junho?

Jerome Powell cobrado pelo governo federal até 30 de junho?

<1%

June 30, 2026

$316K Vol.

$16.0K Liq.

34

Ends em 6 meses

Trump tentará demitir Powell como membro do conselho do Fed até...?

Trump tentará demitir Powell como membro do conselho do Fed até...?

17%

31 de dezembro

$20.2K Vol.

$18.1K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

26%

4,8%

$240K Vol.

$40.4K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

Jerome Powell fora do Conselho do Fed por...?

Jerome Powell fora do Conselho do Fed por...?

40%

31 de dezembro

$424K Vol.

$4.4K Liq.

22

Ends em 6 meses

Quantos discordaram na reunião de julho do Fed?

Quantos discordaram na reunião de julho do Fed?

55%

0

$8.3K Vol.

$16.0K Liq.

Ends em 30 dias

Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?

Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?

8%

$112K Vol.

$17.7K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3%

$4.5K Vol.

$8.0K Liq.

1

Ends em 6 meses

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 22 active markets for Taxas Fed that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Decisão do Fed em julho?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $82.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Quantos cortes de juros do Fed em 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Quantos cortes de juros do Fed em 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 78% chance to 0 (0 bps). These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Taxas Fed predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.