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icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?

icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?

NOVO
30 set 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

Abaixo de 4,52%

$0 Vol.

51%

Abaixo de 4,49%

$0 Vol.

49%

Abaixo de 4,46%

$0 Vol.

50%

Abaixo de 4,43%

$0 Vol.

51%

Abaixo de 4,40%

$0 Vol.

51%

Abaixo de 4,37%

$0 Vol.

50%

Abaixo de 4,32%

$0 Vol.

50%

Abaixo de 4,27%

$0 Vol.

50%

Abaixo de 4,20%

$0 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel have lifted inflation expectations, driving the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026—up notably from August levels around 4.35-4.4%. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and other officials, including openness to a September rate hike if inflation persists, have reinforced "higher for longer" pricing, with market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point hike near 64%. The resilient U.S. economy and fiscal deficit concerns add upward pressure on yields. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could shift the rate path and Treasury market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel have lifted inflation expectations, driving the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026—up notably from August levels around 4.35-4.4%. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and other officials, including openness to a September rate hike if inflation persists, have reinforced "higher for longer" pricing, with market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point hike near 64%. The resilient U.S. economy and fiscal deficit concerns add upward pressure on yields. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could shift the rate path and Treasury market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de 4,52%" at 51%, followed by "Abaixo de 4,46%" at 51%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?" is "Abaixo de 4,52%" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abaixo de 4,46%" at 51%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos em setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.