Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 39% implied probability for OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by surging annualized revenue topping $25 billion, a recent $6.6 billion employee tender offer implying an $852 billion private valuation, and on-chain pre-IPO instruments trading at $900 billion–$1 trillion levels amid AI sector euphoria. High compute commitments nearing $600 billion and reports of missed user growth targets have elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome to 26%, reflecting execution risks in OpenAI's unique capped-profit structure ahead of potential Q4 2026 listing. CFO signals on retail share allocation and bank advisory talks sustain optimism for trillion-dollar brackets, with no S-1 filing yet as the key near-term catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1,5T+ 50.9%
1T–1,25T 32%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 25%
500–750B 16%
$16,310 Vol.
$16,310 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<500B
4%
500–750B
16%
750B–1T
36%
1T–1,25T
32%
1,25T–1,5T
11%
1,5T+
51%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
25%
1,5T+ 50.9%
1T–1,25T 32%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 25%
500–750B 16%
$16,310 Vol.
$16,310 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<500B
$149 Vol.
4%
500–750B
$287 Vol.
16%
750B–1T
$389 Vol.
36%
1T–1,25T
$3,197 Vol.
32%
1,25T–1,5T
$478 Vol.
11%
1,5T+
$311 Vol.
51%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
$11,499 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 39% implied probability for OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by surging annualized revenue topping $25 billion, a recent $6.6 billion employee tender offer implying an $852 billion private valuation, and on-chain pre-IPO instruments trading at $900 billion–$1 trillion levels amid AI sector euphoria. High compute commitments nearing $600 billion and reports of missed user growth targets have elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome to 26%, reflecting execution risks in OpenAI's unique capped-profit structure ahead of potential Q4 2026 listing. CFO signals on retail share allocation and bank advisory talks sustain optimism for trillion-dollar brackets, with no S-1 filing yet as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$16,310Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 39% implied probability for OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by surging annualized revenue topping $25 billion, a recent $6.6 billion employee tender offer implying an $852 billion private valuation, and on-chain pre-IPO instruments trading at $900 billion–$1 trillion levels amid AI sector euphoria. High compute commitments nearing $600 billion and reports of missed user growth targets have elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome to 26%, reflecting execution risks in OpenAI's unique capped-profit structure ahead of potential Q4 2026 listing. CFO signals on retail share allocation and bank advisory talks sustain optimism for trillion-dollar brackets, with no S-1 filing yet as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$16,310Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 39% implied probability for OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by surging annualized revenue topping $25 billion, a recent $6.6 billion employee tender offer implying an $852 billion private valuation, and on-chain pre-IPO instruments trading at $900 billion–$1 trillion levels amid AI sector euphoria. High compute commitments nearing $600 billion and reports of missed user growth targets have elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome to 26%, reflecting execution risks in OpenAI's unique capped-profit structure ahead of potential Q4 2026 listing. CFO signals on retail share allocation and bank advisory talks sustain optimism for trillion-dollar brackets, with no S-1 filing yet as the key near-term catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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