OpenAI’s latest $852 billion private valuation after its March 2026 $122 billion round anchors trader expectations, yet the broad distribution across IPO closing market-cap buckets reflects uncertainty over timing and growth sustainability. Revenue has scaled rapidly to roughly $25 billion annualized run rate, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API usage, but heavy compute-driven losses exceeding $27 billion annually raise questions about multiples above 30-40x revenue that would be needed for $1.25 trillion-plus outcomes. Reports of a confidential S-1 filing and internal preference for a 2027 debut to target $1 trillion or higher differentiate higher buckets from lower ones, while the low 9.5% odds of no IPO by end-2027 signal strong consensus on eventual public listing supported by strategic backers including Microsoft and SoftBank. Key near-term catalysts include further ARR updates and any formal IPO timeline announcements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1,5T+ 34.5%
1,25T–1,5T 23%
1T–1,25T 21.1%
750B–1T 11%
$87,991 Vol.
$87,991 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
11%
1T–1,25T
21%
1,25T–1,5T
23%
1,5T+
35%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
10%
1,5T+ 34.5%
1,25T–1,5T 23%
1T–1,25T 21.1%
750B–1T 11%
$87,991 Vol.
$87,991 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<500B
$6,134 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$8,207 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$9,178 Vol.
11%
1T–1,25T
$13,974 Vol.
21%
1,25T–1,5T
$8,540 Vol.
23%
1,5T+
$22,625 Vol.
35%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
$19,333 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s latest $852 billion private valuation after its March 2026 $122 billion round anchors trader expectations, yet the broad distribution across IPO closing market-cap buckets reflects uncertainty over timing and growth sustainability. Revenue has scaled rapidly to roughly $25 billion annualized run rate, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API usage, but heavy compute-driven losses exceeding $27 billion annually raise questions about multiples above 30-40x revenue that would be needed for $1.25 trillion-plus outcomes. Reports of a confidential S-1 filing and internal preference for a 2027 debut to target $1 trillion or higher differentiate higher buckets from lower ones, while the low 9.5% odds of no IPO by end-2027 signal strong consensus on eventual public listing supported by strategic backers including Microsoft and SoftBank. Key near-term catalysts include further ARR updates and any formal IPO timeline announcements.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$87,991Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s latest $852 billion private valuation after its March 2026 $122 billion round anchors trader expectations, yet the broad distribution across IPO closing market-cap buckets reflects uncertainty over timing and growth sustainability. Revenue has scaled rapidly to roughly $25 billion annualized run rate, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API usage, but heavy compute-driven losses exceeding $27 billion annually raise questions about multiples above 30-40x revenue that would be needed for $1.25 trillion-plus outcomes. Reports of a confidential S-1 filing and internal preference for a 2027 debut to target $1 trillion or higher differentiate higher buckets from lower ones, while the low 9.5% odds of no IPO by end-2027 signal strong consensus on eventual public listing supported by strategic backers including Microsoft and SoftBank. Key near-term catalysts include further ARR updates and any formal IPO timeline announcements.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$87,991Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s latest $852 billion private valuation after its March 2026 $122 billion round anchors trader expectations, yet the broad distribution across IPO closing market-cap buckets reflects uncertainty over timing and growth sustainability. Revenue has scaled rapidly to roughly $25 billion annualized run rate, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API usage, but heavy compute-driven losses exceeding $27 billion annually raise questions about multiples above 30-40x revenue that would be needed for $1.25 trillion-plus outcomes. Reports of a confidential S-1 filing and internal preference for a 2027 debut to target $1 trillion or higher differentiate higher buckets from lower ones, while the low 9.5% odds of no IPO by end-2027 signal strong consensus on eventual public listing supported by strategic backers including Microsoft and SoftBank. Key near-term catalysts include further ARR updates and any formal IPO timeline announcements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions