OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and ongoing banker preparations have anchored trader expectations for an eventual listing at elevated levels, with 1T+ market-cap buckets commanding over 80% combined implied probability. Rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API demand now exceeding 40% of sales, supports premium valuations relative to the company’s most recent private rounds near $730–850 billion. Persistent losses, competition from Anthropic and Google, and reports of a possible 2027 timing shift to achieve a $1 trillion target introduce execution risk that keeps the no-IPO-by-2027 outcome at 9.5%. Upcoming tender offers and any public S-1 amendments remain key near-term catalysts for sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1,5T+ 37.9%
1,25T–1,5T 24%
1T–1,25T 20.6%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 10%
$90,303 Vol.
$90,303 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
8%
1T–1,25T
21%
1,25T–1,5T
24%
1,5T+
38%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
10%
1,5T+ 37.9%
1,25T–1,5T 24%
1T–1,25T 20.6%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 10%
$90,303 Vol.
$90,303 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<500B
$6,284 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$8,357 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$9,333 Vol.
8%
1T–1,25T
$14,102 Vol.
21%
1,25T–1,5T
$8,690 Vol.
24%
1,5T+
$24,054 Vol.
38%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
$19,483 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and ongoing banker preparations have anchored trader expectations for an eventual listing at elevated levels, with 1T+ market-cap buckets commanding over 80% combined implied probability. Rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API demand now exceeding 40% of sales, supports premium valuations relative to the company’s most recent private rounds near $730–850 billion. Persistent losses, competition from Anthropic and Google, and reports of a possible 2027 timing shift to achieve a $1 trillion target introduce execution risk that keeps the no-IPO-by-2027 outcome at 9.5%. Upcoming tender offers and any public S-1 amendments remain key near-term catalysts for sentiment.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$90,303Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and ongoing banker preparations have anchored trader expectations for an eventual listing at elevated levels, with 1T+ market-cap buckets commanding over 80% combined implied probability. Rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API demand now exceeding 40% of sales, supports premium valuations relative to the company’s most recent private rounds near $730–850 billion. Persistent losses, competition from Anthropic and Google, and reports of a possible 2027 timing shift to achieve a $1 trillion target introduce execution risk that keeps the no-IPO-by-2027 outcome at 9.5%. Upcoming tender offers and any public S-1 amendments remain key near-term catalysts for sentiment.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$90,303Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and ongoing banker preparations have anchored trader expectations for an eventual listing at elevated levels, with 1T+ market-cap buckets commanding over 80% combined implied probability. Rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API demand now exceeding 40% of sales, supports premium valuations relative to the company’s most recent private rounds near $730–850 billion. Persistent losses, competition from Anthropic and Google, and reports of a possible 2027 timing shift to achieve a $1 trillion target introduce execution risk that keeps the no-IPO-by-2027 outcome at 9.5%. Upcoming tender offers and any public S-1 amendments remain key near-term catalysts for sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions