Strong private-market momentum, including Databricks’ July 2026 term sheet for a Coatue-led round at a $188 billion valuation and secondary trading near that level, underpins trader consensus on the “No IPO by December 31, 2027” outcome at 63.5% implied probability. CEO comments citing a crowded 2026 calendar with larger issuers have reinforced the view that the company will continue raising privately amid robust revenue growth—$6.9 billion annualized run rate as of June 2026, up more than 80% year-over-year—rather than list soon. If an IPO occurs, current private pricing and AI-sector multiples support the elevated likelihood assigned to sub-$150 billion (41.5%) or $450 billion-plus (34.0%) closing market caps, while the cluster of 30–33.5% probabilities across $150–450 billion brackets reflects uncertainty over post-listing valuation volatility and broader IPO-window conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<US$150B 88%
US$150B–US$200B 81%
US$ 200B-US$ 250B 77%
US$ 400B-US$ 450B 76%
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2027
<US$150B
88%
US$150B–US$200B
81%
US$ 200B-US$ 250B
77%
US$250B-US$300B
60%
US$300B-US$350B
60%
US$350B–US$400B
60%
US$ 400B-US$ 450B
76%
US$450B+
71%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
64%
<US$150B 88%
US$150B–US$200B 81%
US$ 200B-US$ 250B 77%
US$ 400B-US$ 450B 76%
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2027
<US$150B
$0 Vol.
88%
US$150B–US$200B
$0 Vol.
81%
US$ 200B-US$ 250B
$18 Vol.
77%
US$250B-US$300B
$18 Vol.
60%
US$300B-US$350B
$18 Vol.
60%
US$350B–US$400B
$18 Vol.
60%
US$ 400B-US$ 450B
$0 Vol.
76%
US$450B+
$0 Vol.
71%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
$172 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Strong private-market momentum, including Databricks’ July 2026 term sheet for a Coatue-led round at a $188 billion valuation and secondary trading near that level, underpins trader consensus on the “No IPO by December 31, 2027” outcome at 63.5% implied probability. CEO comments citing a crowded 2026 calendar with larger issuers have reinforced the view that the company will continue raising privately amid robust revenue growth—$6.9 billion annualized run rate as of June 2026, up more than 80% year-over-year—rather than list soon. If an IPO occurs, current private pricing and AI-sector multiples support the elevated likelihood assigned to sub-$150 billion (41.5%) or $450 billion-plus (34.0%) closing market caps, while the cluster of 30–33.5% probabilities across $150–450 billion brackets reflects uncertainty over post-listing valuation volatility and broader IPO-window conditions.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Volume
$244Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Strong private-market momentum, including Databricks’ July 2026 term sheet for a Coatue-led round at a $188 billion valuation and secondary trading near that level, underpins trader consensus on the “No IPO by December 31, 2027” outcome at 63.5% implied probability. CEO comments citing a crowded 2026 calendar with larger issuers have reinforced the view that the company will continue raising privately amid robust revenue growth—$6.9 billion annualized run rate as of June 2026, up more than 80% year-over-year—rather than list soon. If an IPO occurs, current private pricing and AI-sector multiples support the elevated likelihood assigned to sub-$150 billion (41.5%) or $450 billion-plus (34.0%) closing market caps, while the cluster of 30–33.5% probabilities across $150–450 billion brackets reflects uncertainty over post-listing valuation volatility and broader IPO-window conditions.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$244Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong private-market momentum, including Databricks’ July 2026 term sheet for a Coatue-led round at a $188 billion valuation and secondary trading near that level, underpins trader consensus on the “No IPO by December 31, 2027” outcome at 63.5% implied probability. CEO comments citing a crowded 2026 calendar with larger issuers have reinforced the view that the company will continue raising privately amid robust revenue growth—$6.9 billion annualized run rate as of June 2026, up more than 80% year-over-year—rather than list soon. If an IPO occurs, current private pricing and AI-sector multiples support the elevated likelihood assigned to sub-$150 billion (41.5%) or $450 billion-plus (34.0%) closing market caps, while the cluster of 30–33.5% probabilities across $150–450 billion brackets reflects uncertainty over post-listing valuation volatility and broader IPO-window conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
A capitalização de mercado da Stripe será de pelo menos US$ 500 bilhões no fechamento do mercado no dia do IPO?
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Sim
O valor de mercado do Discord estará entre US$ 8 bilhões e US$ 11 bilhões no fechamento do mercado no dia do IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027?
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions