Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability against OpenAI completing a $1 trillion-plus initial public offering before 2027, anchored by a Wall Street Journal report last month revealing missed internal revenue and user growth targets—including the goal of one billion weekly ChatGPT users by end-2025—coupled with CFO Sarah Friar's private warnings that surging compute commitments could outstrip revenue, potentially delaying a 2026 debut to 2027. Despite closing a landmark $122 billion funding round in March at an $852 billion post-money valuation, no S-1 filing has surfaced as of mid-May, leaving scant time for regulatory review and roadshows amid ongoing restructuring, lawsuits, and regulatory scrutiny. This week's launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company, backed by $4 billion from private equity firms with guaranteed 17.5% returns to force enterprise AI adoption, highlights persistent demand challenges in a competitive landscape with Anthropic gaining ground. Upcoming catalysts include any S-1 disclosure or Q3 earnings signals, though historical product and IPO timelines suggest slippage risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOpenAI $ 1t+ IPO antes de 2027?
OpenAI $ 1t+ IPO antes de 2027?
Sim
$269,322 Vol.
$269,322 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$269,322 Vol.
$269,322 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability against OpenAI completing a $1 trillion-plus initial public offering before 2027, anchored by a Wall Street Journal report last month revealing missed internal revenue and user growth targets—including the goal of one billion weekly ChatGPT users by end-2025—coupled with CFO Sarah Friar's private warnings that surging compute commitments could outstrip revenue, potentially delaying a 2026 debut to 2027. Despite closing a landmark $122 billion funding round in March at an $852 billion post-money valuation, no S-1 filing has surfaced as of mid-May, leaving scant time for regulatory review and roadshows amid ongoing restructuring, lawsuits, and regulatory scrutiny. This week's launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company, backed by $4 billion from private equity firms with guaranteed 17.5% returns to force enterprise AI adoption, highlights persistent demand challenges in a competitive landscape with Anthropic gaining ground. Upcoming catalysts include any S-1 disclosure or Q3 earnings signals, though historical product and IPO timelines suggest slippage risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$269,322Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability against OpenAI completing a $1 trillion-plus initial public offering before 2027, anchored by a Wall Street Journal report last month revealing missed internal revenue and user growth targets—including the goal of one billion weekly ChatGPT users by end-2025—coupled with CFO Sarah Friar's private warnings that surging compute commitments could outstrip revenue, potentially delaying a 2026 debut to 2027. Despite closing a landmark $122 billion funding round in March at an $852 billion post-money valuation, no S-1 filing has surfaced as of mid-May, leaving scant time for regulatory review and roadshows amid ongoing restructuring, lawsuits, and regulatory scrutiny. This week's launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company, backed by $4 billion from private equity firms with guaranteed 17.5% returns to force enterprise AI adoption, highlights persistent demand challenges in a competitive landscape with Anthropic gaining ground. Upcoming catalysts include any S-1 disclosure or Q3 earnings signals, though historical product and IPO timelines suggest slippage risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$269,322Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability against OpenAI completing a $1 trillion-plus initial public offering before 2027, anchored by a Wall Street Journal report last month revealing missed internal revenue and user growth targets—including the goal of one billion weekly ChatGPT users by end-2025—coupled with CFO Sarah Friar's private warnings that surging compute commitments could outstrip revenue, potentially delaying a 2026 debut to 2027. Despite closing a landmark $122 billion funding round in March at an $852 billion post-money valuation, no S-1 filing has surfaced as of mid-May, leaving scant time for regulatory review and roadshows amid ongoing restructuring, lawsuits, and regulatory scrutiny. This week's launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company, backed by $4 billion from private equity firms with guaranteed 17.5% returns to force enterprise AI adoption, highlights persistent demand challenges in a competitive landscape with Anthropic gaining ground. Upcoming catalysts include any S-1 disclosure or Q3 earnings signals, though historical product and IPO timelines suggest slippage risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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