Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April has solidified its 67% market-implied odds for the top large language model by end of June, driven by sustained leads on LMSYS Chatbot Arena under style-controlled evaluation and strong performance on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders see this as a clear edge over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which holds 22.5% thanks to superior reasoning scores on GPQA and ARC-AGI but trails in prose quality and developer adoption. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 rollout in late April lifted its share only modestly to 5.5%, as the update has not yet shifted leaderboard dominance. With June previews expected from labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot, the market reflects real-money consensus on Anthropic’s current technical and practical advantages while acknowledging that rapid benchmark shifts remain possible.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,902 Vol.
$1,455,902 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
67%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,902 Vol.
$1,455,902 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$30,350 Vol.
67%
$18,356 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$49,319 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,949 Vol.
3%
Microsoft
$11,868 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$201,120 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,496 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,140 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,881 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,349 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,689 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,334 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,641 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,804 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April has solidified its 67% market-implied odds for the top large language model by end of June, driven by sustained leads on LMSYS Chatbot Arena under style-controlled evaluation and strong performance on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders see this as a clear edge over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which holds 22.5% thanks to superior reasoning scores on GPQA and ARC-AGI but trails in prose quality and developer adoption. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 rollout in late April lifted its share only modestly to 5.5%, as the update has not yet shifted leaderboard dominance. With June previews expected from labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot, the market reflects real-money consensus on Anthropic’s current technical and practical advantages while acknowledging that rapid benchmark shifts remain possible.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,455,902Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April has solidified its 67% market-implied odds for the top large language model by end of June, driven by sustained leads on LMSYS Chatbot Arena under style-controlled evaluation and strong performance on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders see this as a clear edge over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which holds 22.5% thanks to superior reasoning scores on GPQA and ARC-AGI but trails in prose quality and developer adoption. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 rollout in late April lifted its share only modestly to 5.5%, as the update has not yet shifted leaderboard dominance. With June previews expected from labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot, the market reflects real-money consensus on Anthropic’s current technical and practical advantages while acknowledging that rapid benchmark shifts remain possible.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,455,902Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April has solidified its 67% market-implied odds for the top large language model by end of June, driven by sustained leads on LMSYS Chatbot Arena under style-controlled evaluation and strong performance on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders see this as a clear edge over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which holds 22.5% thanks to superior reasoning scores on GPQA and ARC-AGI but trails in prose quality and developer adoption. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 rollout in late April lifted its share only modestly to 5.5%, as the update has not yet shifted leaderboard dominance. With June previews expected from labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot, the market reflects real-money consensus on Anthropic’s current technical and practical advantages while acknowledging that rapid benchmark shifts remain possible.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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