Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for "No" on President Trump ordering a federal review of AI model releases by May 31, driven by the absence of any formal executive order or draft despite early May New York Times reporting on White House deliberations for pre-deployment vetting of frontier AI models. This potential oversight—likened to FDA-style approval—marks a sharp pivot from the administration's prior deregulatory executive orders like EO 14179, which prioritized removing barriers to American AI leadership. Discussions with labs including Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI remain exploratory, with no announced working group or timeline, leaving scant room for action in the remaining two weeks. Realistic challenges include an abrupt AI safety incident, cyber threat escalation, or direct Trump endorsement accelerating the process.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTrump ordena revisão federal dos lançamentos do modelo de IA até 31 de maio?
Trump ordena revisão federal dos lançamentos do modelo de IA até 31 de maio?
Sim
$60,683 Vol.
$60,683 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Sim
$60,683 Vol.
$60,683 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for "No" on President Trump ordering a federal review of AI model releases by May 31, driven by the absence of any formal executive order or draft despite early May New York Times reporting on White House deliberations for pre-deployment vetting of frontier AI models. This potential oversight—likened to FDA-style approval—marks a sharp pivot from the administration's prior deregulatory executive orders like EO 14179, which prioritized removing barriers to American AI leadership. Discussions with labs including Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI remain exploratory, with no announced working group or timeline, leaving scant room for action in the remaining two weeks. Realistic challenges include an abrupt AI safety incident, cyber threat escalation, or direct Trump endorsement accelerating the process.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$60,683Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for "No" on President Trump ordering a federal review of AI model releases by May 31, driven by the absence of any formal executive order or draft despite early May New York Times reporting on White House deliberations for pre-deployment vetting of frontier AI models. This potential oversight—likened to FDA-style approval—marks a sharp pivot from the administration's prior deregulatory executive orders like EO 14179, which prioritized removing barriers to American AI leadership. Discussions with labs including Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI remain exploratory, with no announced working group or timeline, leaving scant room for action in the remaining two weeks. Realistic challenges include an abrupt AI safety incident, cyber threat escalation, or direct Trump endorsement accelerating the process.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$60,683Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for "No" on President Trump ordering a federal review of AI model releases by May 31, driven by the absence of any formal executive order or draft despite early May New York Times reporting on White House deliberations for pre-deployment vetting of frontier AI models. This potential oversight—likened to FDA-style approval—marks a sharp pivot from the administration's prior deregulatory executive orders like EO 14179, which prioritized removing barriers to American AI leadership. Discussions with labs including Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI remain exploratory, with no announced working group or timeline, leaving scant room for action in the remaining two weeks. Realistic challenges include an abrupt AI safety incident, cyber threat escalation, or direct Trump endorsement accelerating the process.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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