Recent signals of demand recovery in China and Europe, including a 36% year-over-year jump in Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and surging European registrations, have lifted trader expectations for a Q2 rebound from Tesla’s weaker Q1 base of roughly 358,000 deliveries. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and inventory overhang continue to cap upside, creating closely matched odds across the 375k–475k range. Production capacity at the Texas, Shanghai, and Fremont Gigafactories supports potential acceleration, though historical patterns show quarterly deliveries can swing sharply based on end-of-quarter push and macroeconomic factors. May registration data and the early-July report will serve as key near-term catalysts.