Ye’s confirmed October 10–11 concerts at St. Petersburg’s Gazprom Arena, with tickets selling out rapidly, anchor the 97% market-implied probability against arrest by month-end. Recent announcements show the rapper entering Russia for major shows—the first high-profile Western performances there since the Ukraine invasion—without reported visa issues, warrants, or enforcement actions, despite past antisemitic remarks prompting European cancellations. Russian organizers and lawmakers have voiced mixed reactions but advanced the dates, and no credible reports indicate detention risks tied to his history or statements. While on-stage comments or renewed political scrutiny during the residency could theoretically trigger authorities, the absence of barriers and active promotion strongly favor the current trader consensus through the October 31 resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoKanye West preso na Rússia até 31 de outubro?
Kanye West preso na Rússia até 31 de outubro?
Sim
3% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
Sim
3% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is arrested in Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Ye is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ye’s confirmed October 10–11 concerts at St. Petersburg’s Gazprom Arena, with tickets selling out rapidly, anchor the 97% market-implied probability against arrest by month-end. Recent announcements show the rapper entering Russia for major shows—the first high-profile Western performances there since the Ukraine invasion—without reported visa issues, warrants, or enforcement actions, despite past antisemitic remarks prompting European cancellations. Russian organizers and lawmakers have voiced mixed reactions but advanced the dates, and no credible reports indicate detention risks tied to his history or statements. While on-stage comments or renewed political scrutiny during the residency could theoretically trigger authorities, the absence of barriers and active promotion strongly favor the current trader consensus through the October 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is arrested in Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Ye is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Ye is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 19, 2026, 7:49 AM ET
Volume
$83Data de Término
31 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 7:49 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is arrested in Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Ye is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ye’s confirmed October 10–11 concerts at St. Petersburg’s Gazprom Arena, with tickets selling out rapidly, anchor the 97% market-implied probability against arrest by month-end. Recent announcements show the rapper entering Russia for major shows—the first high-profile Western performances there since the Ukraine invasion—without reported visa issues, warrants, or enforcement actions, despite past antisemitic remarks prompting European cancellations. Russian organizers and lawmakers have voiced mixed reactions but advanced the dates, and no credible reports indicate detention risks tied to his history or statements. While on-stage comments or renewed political scrutiny during the residency could theoretically trigger authorities, the absence of barriers and active promotion strongly favor the current trader consensus through the October 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is arrested in Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Ye is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Ye is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83Data de Término
31 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 7:49 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ye’s confirmed October 10–11 concerts at St. Petersburg’s Gazprom Arena, with tickets selling out rapidly, anchor the 97% market-implied probability against arrest by month-end. Recent announcements show the rapper entering Russia for major shows—the first high-profile Western performances there since the Ukraine invasion—without reported visa issues, warrants, or enforcement actions, despite past antisemitic remarks prompting European cancellations. Russian organizers and lawmakers have voiced mixed reactions but advanced the dates, and no credible reports indicate detention risks tied to his history or statements. While on-stage comments or renewed political scrutiny during the residency could theoretically trigger authorities, the absence of barriers and active promotion strongly favor the current trader consensus through the October 31 resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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