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icon for Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?

Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?

icon for Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?

Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?

61% chance
Polymarket

$11,241 Vol.

61% chance
Polymarket

$11,241 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered. An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments around Pep Guardiola's Manchester City tenure have centered on persistent speculation about his departure this summer despite one year remaining on his contract. Insider reports indicate he made the decision weeks ago, prompting the club to advance contingency planning for a successor while Guardiola publicly references completing his deal and expresses enthusiasm for the young squad's potential after their FA Cup triumph. With City still pushing for the Premier League title amid a demanding schedule, these mixed signals—official expectations of continuity clashing with widespread anticipation of change—have shaped trader sentiment around the implied probability of an exit by the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered.

An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$11,241
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Mar 25, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered. An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered. An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments around Pep Guardiola's Manchester City tenure have centered on persistent speculation about his departure this summer despite one year remaining on his contract. Insider reports indicate he made the decision weeks ago, prompting the club to advance contingency planning for a successor while Guardiola publicly references completing his deal and expresses enthusiasm for the young squad's potential after their FA Cup triumph. With City still pushing for the Premier League title amid a demanding schedule, these mixed signals—official expectations of continuity clashing with widespread anticipation of change—have shaped trader sentiment around the implied probability of an exit by the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered.

An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$11,241
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Mar 25, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered. An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 61% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 61¢, the market collectively assigns a 61% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?" has generated $11.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?" is 61% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 61% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.