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Clima E Ciência·Clima

Qual será o nome do primeiro furacão no Atlântico para a temporada de furacões de 2026?

icon for Qual será o nome do primeiro furacão no Atlântico para a temporada de furacões de 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Clima

Qual será o nome do primeiro furacão no Atlântico para a temporada de furacões de 2026?

Marco 44%

Rene 43%

Edouard 42%

Fay 42%

Polymarket
NOVO

Marco 44%

Rene 43%

Edouard 42%

Fay 42%

Polymarket
NOVO

Cristobal

$26 Vol.

36%

Dolly

$26 Vol.

40%

Edouard

$26 Vol.

42%

Fay

$26 Vol.

42%

Gonzalo

$26 Vol.

36%

Hanna

$26 Vol.

39%

Isaias

$25 Vol.

37%

Josephine

$25 Vol.

37%

Kyle

$25 Vol.

39%

Leah

$25 Vol.

40%

Marco

$25 Vol.

44%

Nana

$25 Vol.

40%

Omar

$24 Vol.

38%

Paulette

$24 Vol.

38%

Rene

$24 Vol.

43%

Sally

$24 Vol.

37%

Teddy

$24 Vol.

39%

Vicky

$25 Vol.

39%

Wilfred

$23 Vol.

39%

Outro

$23 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. No hurricanes have formed in the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, where only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have occurred so far, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. The even ~50% market-implied odds across Cristobal through Wilfred (with earlier names like Dolly and Hanna slightly lower) reflect uncertainty over when subsequent systems will develop and reach the 74 mph sustained wind threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA and CSU forecasts cite moderate El Niño conditions and other factors suppressing overall activity, which could delay intensification or shift formation later in the list. NHC model consensus updates and the next tropical weather outlook will be key near-term drivers for trader positioning.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$497
Data de Término
2 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. No hurricanes have formed in the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, where only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have occurred so far, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. The even ~50% market-implied odds across Cristobal through Wilfred (with earlier names like Dolly and Hanna slightly lower) reflect uncertainty over when subsequent systems will develop and reach the 74 mph sustained wind threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA and CSU forecasts cite moderate El Niño conditions and other factors suppressing overall activity, which could delay intensification or shift formation later in the list. NHC model consensus updates and the next tropical weather outlook will be key near-term drivers for trader positioning.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$497
Data de Término
2 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual será o nome do primeiro furacão no Atlântico para a temporada de furacões de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marco" at 44%, followed by "Rene" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Qual será o nome do primeiro furacão no Atlântico para a temporada de furacões de 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Qual será o nome do primeiro furacão no Atlântico para a temporada de furacões de 2026?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual será o nome do primeiro furacão no Atlântico para a temporada de furacões de 2026?" is "Marco" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rene" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual será o nome do primeiro furacão no Atlântico para a temporada de furacões de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.