Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center and international model ensembles show the 2026 El Niño rapidly strengthening, with equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C in key eastern Pacific regions and Niño-3.4 near +1.8–2.9°C. Official outlooks assign over 90% probability of a very strong event (peak at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026–27 and 75% odds of a historic peak exceeding prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during October–December. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere observations and multi-model agreement, underpins the market’s 94.1% implied probability for a super El Niño. Realistic challenges include potential model over-amplification, shifts in peak timing, or revisions if subsurface heat content or atmospheric feedbacks weaken faster than projected.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHaverá um Super El Niño neste inverno (2026–27)?
Haverá um Super El Niño neste inverno (2026–27)?
Sim
94% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 mar 2027
Sim
94% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center and international model ensembles show the 2026 El Niño rapidly strengthening, with equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C in key eastern Pacific regions and Niño-3.4 near +1.8–2.9°C. Official outlooks assign over 90% probability of a very strong event (peak at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026–27 and 75% odds of a historic peak exceeding prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during October–December. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere observations and multi-model agreement, underpins the market’s 94.1% implied probability for a super El Niño. Realistic challenges include potential model over-amplification, shifts in peak timing, or revisions if subsurface heat content or atmospheric feedbacks weaken faster than projected.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$9,134Data de Término
1 abr 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center and international model ensembles show the 2026 El Niño rapidly strengthening, with equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C in key eastern Pacific regions and Niño-3.4 near +1.8–2.9°C. Official outlooks assign over 90% probability of a very strong event (peak at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026–27 and 75% odds of a historic peak exceeding prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during October–December. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere observations and multi-model agreement, underpins the market’s 94.1% implied probability for a super El Niño. Realistic challenges include potential model over-amplification, shifts in peak timing, or revisions if subsurface heat content or atmospheric feedbacks weaken faster than projected.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$9,134Data de Término
1 abr 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center and international model ensembles show the 2026 El Niño rapidly strengthening, with equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C in key eastern Pacific regions and Niño-3.4 near +1.8–2.9°C. Official outlooks assign over 90% probability of a very strong event (peak at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026–27 and 75% odds of a historic peak exceeding prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during October–December. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere observations and multi-model agreement, underpins the market’s 94.1% implied probability for a super El Niño. Realistic challenges include potential model over-amplification, shifts in peak timing, or revisions if subsurface heat content or atmospheric feedbacks weaken faster than projected.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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