The contained May 2026 Andes hantavirus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 total cases before containment by mid-June, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Hantaviruses are primarily zoonotic pathogens transmitted via rodent excreta, with Andes virus the sole strain known for limited person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact; official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC classify global and U.S. population risk as very low to extremely low given absent sustained community transmission and standard surveillance data. No mutations enabling efficient airborne spread have been documented. A realistic shift would require undetected widespread chains or evolutionary changes increasing transmissibility before symptoms, though current epidemiological patterns and monitoring make this improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPandemia de hantavírus em 2026?
Pandemia de hantavírus em 2026?
Sim
4% chance
$17,814,212 Vol.
$17,814,212 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
$17,814,212 Vol.
$17,814,212 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The contained May 2026 Andes hantavirus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 total cases before containment by mid-June, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Hantaviruses are primarily zoonotic pathogens transmitted via rodent excreta, with Andes virus the sole strain known for limited person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact; official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC classify global and U.S. population risk as very low to extremely low given absent sustained community transmission and standard surveillance data. No mutations enabling efficient airborne spread have been documented. A realistic shift would require undetected widespread chains or evolutionary changes increasing transmissibility before symptoms, though current epidemiological patterns and monitoring make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,814,212Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The contained May 2026 Andes hantavirus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 total cases before containment by mid-June, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Hantaviruses are primarily zoonotic pathogens transmitted via rodent excreta, with Andes virus the sole strain known for limited person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact; official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC classify global and U.S. population risk as very low to extremely low given absent sustained community transmission and standard surveillance data. No mutations enabling efficient airborne spread have been documented. A realistic shift would require undetected widespread chains or evolutionary changes increasing transmissibility before symptoms, though current epidemiological patterns and monitoring make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,814,212Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The contained May 2026 Andes hantavirus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 total cases before containment by mid-June, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Hantaviruses are primarily zoonotic pathogens transmitted via rodent excreta, with Andes virus the sole strain known for limited person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact; official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC classify global and U.S. population risk as very low to extremely low given absent sustained community transmission and standard surveillance data. No mutations enabling efficient airborne spread have been documented. A realistic shift would require undetected widespread chains or evolutionary changes increasing transmissibility before symptoms, though current epidemiological patterns and monitoring make this improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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