A small, contained cluster of Andes virus infections—totaling roughly 13 cases with three deaths—emerged on the MV Hondius cruise ship in early May 2026 and remained isolated to ship passengers and close contacts. Official CDC and WHO surveillance through June confirmed no sustained community transmission beyond the vessel, consistent with the virus’s typical rodent-to-human spillover pattern and rare person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact. By mid-summer, health agencies reported the risk to the general population as very low, with no additional outbreaks detected in the United States or elsewhere. This limited scale, rapid containment via contact tracing, and absence of broader epidemiological indicators underpin traders’ 96.3% implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. A realistic shift could occur only if undetected secondary chains produced exponential growth before year-end or if surveillance gaps revealed larger undetected spread.