Current forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models project a daily maximum near 32°C for Seoul/Incheon on August 15 under mostly cloudy skies with 30% rain chances, though recent heatwave conditions and variable steering flows introduce uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and diurnal heating. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29–30°C, reflecting expectations that increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible sea-breeze moderation from Incheon’s coastal location will cap temperatures below official guidance. Model spreads remain modest two days out, but small shifts in low-level moisture or timing of any convective activity could easily move the realized high by 1–2°C, consistent with the tight clustering of market odds around the 29–31°C range.